000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111511
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
1605 UTC Mon Jul 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Celia centered near 15.1N 125.5W at 1500 UTC moving
west or 275 degrees at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 977 mb.
Numerous moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of center.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 20N
between 120W and 128W. Celia is expected to continue to
intensify, and expand its radius of winds and seas, as it moves
west to west-northwest. See latest NHC forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

Low pressure is near 14.4N105.6W 1008 mb. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the northern semicircle of the
low. This disturbance has a high probability of developing into
a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09N85W to 13N100W to
low pres near 14.4N105.6W to 13N116W. The ITCZ axis extends from
09N135W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 210 nm either side of the monsoon trough
axis east of 97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
11N between 97W and 106W. Isolated moderate convection is within
90 nm of the ITCZ axis W of 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

A ridge axis extends from high pressure nw of our area of
discussion to 26N122W to 18N115W. Mainly moderate northwesterly
to northeasterly winds cover the region north of 22N and east of
135W. The remnant low of Blas is just west of our area of
discussion, with the pressure gradient between the low and the
ridge to the north supporting moderate to fresh east to
northeast winds north of 22N and west of 135W. A small area of
fresh to strong winds are possible within 120 nm of the northern
semicircle of the remnant low. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will diminish
below 8 ft later this evening over this area. Elsewhere over the
northern waters, fresh winds west of the California Coast will
support swell of 8 ft propagating across our northern border
between 118W and 122W over the next 24 hours.  

Hurricane Celia is generating seas to near 31 ft over the open
waters of the Pacific with recent altimeter passes confirming 12
ft seas extending up to 210 nm north and 150 nm south of the
cyclone. Large seas will continue to propagate away from the
cyclone as the system moves generally west-northwest over the
next several days. Refer to the special features section for
further details on this system. 

A 1008 mb low centered near 14.4N105.6W is forecast to gradually
increase in strength over the next several days which will
result in seas increasing near the low to 8 to 10 ft within the
next 48 hours. 

Models are forecasting winds to pulse to fresh to strong over
the Gulf of Papagayo Wednesday morning and again Thursday
morning. Winds will peak near 25 kt during the overnight hours
with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow.

$$
LATTO