000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110900
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
503 UTC Mon Jul 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Celia centered near 15.0N 124.5W at 0900 UTC moving
west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 983 mb.
Numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of center.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection elsewhere within 210
nm southeast and 180 nm northwest semicircles. Celia is expected
to continue to intensify, and expand its radius of winds and seas,
as it moves west. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

Low pressure is near 13.5N105W 1008 mb. This disturbance has a
high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone within the
next 48 hours. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N86W to 08N92W to low
pres near 13.5N105W to 12N111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough east
of 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N east of 120W:

Hurricane Celia continues to move further from the area. Winds and
seas are diminishing over the waters south of 20N and west of
115W. Currently winds are in the 15-20 kt range with seas in the
7-8 ft range over this area. Elsewhere high pressure of 1035 mb
extends a ridge southeast into the area to near 20N115W. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over Baja
California is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds off the
Baja California coast out to 120W. Seas in this area are in the
4-6 ft range.

South of 15N east of 120W: 

Tropical Storm Celia has moved west of the area. Winds and seas
west of 115W continue to decrease over this area. Winds are
currently in the 15-20 kt range with seas in the 7-9 ft range.
Winds will continue pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo for at least
the next several days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during the
overnight hours with the added component of nocturnal drainage
flow.

West of 120W:

See the special features section above for details on Hurricane
Celia. Celia will continue developing and move across the local
waters region during the first half of this week. As it does, the
coverage of seas 8 ft or greater will increase north of 10N and
west of 120W.

$$
AL