000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Celia centered near 15.0N 123.5W at 0300 UTC moving west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 988 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection elsewhere within 210 nm of center. Celia is expected to continue to intensify, and expand its radius of winds and seas, as it moves west. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Low pressure near 13N104W 1008 mb is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. Animated satellite imagery shows convection trying to coil around the low center, an indication it may be in the early stages of tropical cyclogenesis. GFS is an outlier among global models, as it does not intensify this disturbance significantly during the next 2-3 days. Other models are more aggressive. This disturbance has a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Scattered moderate convection associated with the low and approaching tropical wave mentioned below are from 10N to 16N between 100W-108W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave from 10N-18N along 102W is moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing deep convection S of southern Mexico, and is expected to merge into the low pressure area currently located near 13N104W during the next 12-24 hours. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N86W to 08N93W to low pres near 13N104W to 11N114W. Impressive flare-up of deep convection south of Costa Rica and Panama, numerous moderate scattered strong from 06N to 10N between 80W-88W. Scattered moderate convection from 06N to 08N between 90W-98W. ...DISCUSSION... Post-tropical cyclone Blas centered near 21N137W is rapidly becoming diffuse over western waters. Max winds are 20-25 kt but model guidance indicates a large area of enhanced winds and seas will persist mainly north of the low center another 24 hours as it tracks west of the area through Mon night. NW winds west of California will increase during the next 12-24 hours and produce NW swell to 9 ft moving south of 30N between 118W-123W through Tuesday. Elsewhere, winds will continue pulsing at night over the Gulf of Papagayo the next several days, and peak near 20 kt between 0600 and 0900 UTC. $$ Mundell