000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
2205 UTC Sun Jul 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...Special Features...

Hurricane Celia centered near 15.0N 122.5W at 2100 UTC Jul 10
moving west or 275 degrees at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
988 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of
center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection elsewhere
within 180 nm of center. Celia is expected to continue to
intensify, and expand its radius of winds and seas, as it moves
west. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

Low pressure near 13N104W 1009 mb is moving west-northwestward
at 10 kt. Animated satellite imagery shows deep convection is
starting to coil around the low center, an indication it may be
in the early stages of tropical cyclogenesis. GFS appears to be
an outlier among global models, as it does not intensify this
disturbance significantly during the next 2-3 days. Other models
are much more aggressive. This system has a high probability of
developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with the low
and an approaching tropical wave mentioned below are from 12N to
16N between 99W-104W. 

...Tropical Waves...

A tropical wave from 08N-16N along 100W-101W is moving west at
15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing deep convection S of southern
Mexico, and is expected to merge into the low pressure area
currently located near 13N103W during the next 24 hours. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N86W to 08N93W to
low pres near 13N104W to 11N112W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 04N to 09N between 79W-92W.

...DISCUSSION...   

Post-tropical cyclone Blas centered near 21N137W is rapidly
becoming diffuse over western waters. Max winds are 20-30 kt but
model guidance indicates a large area of enhanced winds and seas
will persist mainly north of the low center as it tracks west of
the area through Mon night. 

During the next 24 hours winds west of California will increase
from the northwest which will produce in southward propagating
swell to 9 ft moving south to 27N between 118W and 123W Monday
through Tuesday. 

Elsewhere, winds will continue pulsing at night over the Gulf of
Papagayo the next several days, and peak near 20 kt between 0600
and 0900 UTC.

$$
Mundell