000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101719 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Amended NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. Tropical Storm Celia centered near 14.8N 121.3W at 1500 UTC Jul 10 moving west or 275 degrees at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of the center. Celia is expected to intensify as it moves west and reach hurricane by tonight. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Post Tropical Cyclone Blas is centered near 21.3N 136.3W at 1500 UTC Jul 10 moving west or 275 degrees at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. There is no longer any deep convection associated with Blas. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Low pressure near 13N103W of 1010 mb is moving west to west- northwestward at around 10 kt. This system has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Clusters of moderate convection are within 180 nm of the low center. ...Tropical Waves... The axis of a tropical wave extends from near 16N96W to 08N98W, moving west at around 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The combination of this wave and diurnal convection over the coast of Mexico supports numerous moderate and isolated strong convection north of 13N between 95W and 102W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 96W and 100W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 06N90W to a 1010 mb low near 13N103W to 13N113W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 03N to 08N between 75W and 89W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 150 nm north and 300 nm south of the monsoon trough axis. ...DISCUSSION... A ridge axis extends from high pressure nw of our area of discussion to 25N120W to 17N110W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are occurring north of 20N east of 125W. Tropical depression Blas is producing a broad area of 20 to 30 kt winds with seas to 14 ft from 18N to 25N west of 125W. Wind and seas will continue to diminish as Blas becomes a remnant low later today. Over the next 24 hours winds west of California will increase from the northwest which will result in southward propagating swell to 9 ft moving south to 27N between 118W and 123W Monday through Tuesday. Strengthening Tropical Storm Celia is generating seas to 26 ft with 12 ft seas extending up to 180 north of the center and 120 nm south of the center with a broad area of 8 ft or higher swell propagating up to 400 nm from the center of the system. Seas will continue to increase in height and coverage as Celia intensifies the next 24 hours. Please refer to the special features section for more details on both Celia and Blas. South of the circulations of these systems, the monsoon trough/itcz has been disrupted west of 113W, with scatterometer imagery indicating a notable lack the typical moderate to fresh trades that would otherwise be occurring between the monsoon trough/itcz axis and the ridge to the north. Elsewhere, winds will continue pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo for the next several days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during the overnight hours with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. $$ LATTO