000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100904
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
532 UTC Sun Jul 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

Tropical Storm Celia centered near 14.8N 119.8W at 0900 UTC Jul
10 moving west or 280 degrees at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 997 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm
southeast and 30 nm northwest semicircles. Celia is expected to
intensify as it moves west and reach hurricane strength late
tonight. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

Blas has weakened to a tropical depression. The system is
centered near 21.2N 135.2W at 0900 UTC Jul 10 moving west or 280
degrees at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. There is no
longer any deep convection associated with Blas. The system is
expected to become a remnant low today. See latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more
details.

...Tropical Waves...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W and north of 08N.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted north of
12N between 95W and 101W. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N76W to 08N92W to 12N110W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N133W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted north of 04N and east of 82W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90
nm south of the monsoon trough between 94W and 110W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N east of 120W:

Winds and seas associated with Tropical Storm Celia are affecting
the waters south of 20N and west of 115W as depicted by the latest
ascat passes. For more on Celia see above. Elsewhere high
pressure of 1036 mb extends a ridge southeast into the area to
near 23N115W. Outside the influence of Celia, light to gentle
winds prevail. 

South of 15N east of 120W: 

Tropical Storm Celia is moving through the waters west of 115W.
See above for more on Tropical Storm Celia. Winds will continue
pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo for at least the next several
days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during the overnight hours with
the added component of nocturnal drainage flow.

West of 120W:

See the special features section above for details on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Blas and on Tropical Storm Celia.
A large area of seas 8 ft or greater associated with Blas to
cover much of the area north of 20N and west of 130W. Coverage of
seas 8 ft or greater will decrease over the next couple of days
and will fall below 8 ft by Monday night. Celia will continue
developing and move across this region during the first half of
next week. As it does, the coverage of seas 8 ft or greater will
increase once again.

$$
AL