000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092200
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
2205 UTC Sat Jul 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

Tropical Storm Celia centered near 14.3N 117.8W at 2100 UTC Jul
09 moving west at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb.
Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection
from 12N to 16N between 116W and 121W. Celia is expected to
intensify as it moves west to west-northwest and become a
hurricane tonight. See latest NHC forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Blas centered near 20.8N 133.5W at 2100 UTC Jul
09 moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N to 22N between
132W and 135W. Blas is expected to continue to weaken during the
next 12-24 hours and become a remnant low Sunday. See latest NHC
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
for more details.

...Tropical Waves...

A tropical wave along 101W from 07N to 16N is moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 10N
within 120 nm east of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave N of 07N along 91W-92W is moving west at 15-20
kt. Isolated convection is within 90 nm E of the wave axis. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 10N91W to 12N107W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-14N between 93W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...   

A ridge axis extending from high pressure NW of the area
prevails over northern waters generally N of 23N W of 115W.
Gentle to moderate winds are occurring N of 23N ...with large
mixed swell generated from Tropical Storm Blas propagating
northward into northern waters west of 125W. Seas associated
with Blas will gradually subside through Monday as the cyclone
weakens and moves west of 140W. However, expect seas generated
by TS Celia to steadily build and expand outward as the cyclone
intensifies and the central core broadens. These systems have
disrupted the convergence zone west of 110W. Therefore seas in
southern waters are mainly combined swell around 5-6 ft, from
the tropical cyclones to the north, and cross-equatorial swell
to the south. 

Elsewhere, fresh winds will continue to pulse near the Gulf of
Papagayo the next several days. NW swell generated by strong
winds off the California coast will sweep south of 30N Mon
morning with max seas building to 9-10 ft Mon afternoon.

$$
Mundell