000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091604
TWDEP 

TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 20.1N
132.5W at 1500 UTC Jul 09. Blas is moving northwest or 315 deg
at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds have diminished to 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb.
Scattered moderate convection is from 19N to 23N between 130W
and 134W. Isolated moderate convection is from 16N to 19N
between 128W and 132W. The latest NHC advisory forecasts Blas to
weaken to a remnant low by Sunday evening. Refer to latest NHC
public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC
and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details.

Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 14.4N 117.2W at 1500 UTC
Jul 09. Celia is moving west or 280 deg at 13 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Scattered to numerous
moderate and isolated strong are from 12N to 16N between 116W
and 119W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to
17N between 110W and 120W. The latest NHC advisory indicates
Celia intensifying to hurricane strength late tonight. Refer to
latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details.

...Tropical Waves...

The axis of a tropical wave extends from near 15N101W to
6N103W...moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is north of 11N between 94W
and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N
within 240 nm west of the tropical wave axis. 

The axis of a tropical wave extends from near 15N89W to
07N92W...moving west at around 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm west of the wave
axis. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N83W to 09N93W to 10N102W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 83W and 97W.

...DISCUSSION...   

A ridge axis extends from high pressure nw of our area of
discussion to 28N125W to 20N111W. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds are occurring north of 23N over the eastern Pacific with
increasing swell generated from Tropical Storm Blas propagating
northward into the northern waters west of 125W.  

Weakening Tropical Storm Blas is generating seas to 25 ft with
12 ft seas up to 220 nm north and 150 nm south of the center.
Strengthening Tropical Storm Celia is generating seas to 14 ft
with 12 ft seas extending up to 60 nm north of the center. Seas
will be diminishing in height and coverage near Blas as it
weakens the next couple of days. Seas will be increasing in
height and coverage as Celia intensifies the next few days.
Please refer to the special features section for more details on
these systems. These systems have disrupted the monsoon
trough/itcz to the south, west of 110W, and the typical moderate
to fresh trades that would otherwise be occurring between the
monsoon trough/itcz axis and the ridge to the north. Therefore
seas over the areas south of the cyclones are mainly swell
driven around 6 ft, as a combination of swell from the tropical
cyclones to the north, and cross equatorial swell to the south. 

Elsewhere, winds will continue pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo
for at least the next several days. Winds will peak near 20 kt
during the overnight hours with the added component of nocturnal
drainage flow.

$$
Latto