000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 08 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 18.5N 130.5 at 2100 UTC Jul 08. Blas is moving Northwest or 310 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds have diminished to 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Convection has weakened during the day. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 90 nm of the center. Latest NHC advisory forecasts Blas to weaken to a tropical storm by early Saturday, and continue weakening as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a more stable environment. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 13.0N 113.2W at 2100 UTC Jul 08. Celia is moving west-northwest or 290 deg at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Latest satellite imagery shows several banding features around a small center. The bands consist of scattered strong convection within 30 nm of a line from 15N115W to 16N112W, and similar convection within 30 of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 30 nm of a line from 16N112W to 13N107W. Similar activity exists from 10N to 14N between 110W and 115W. The latest NHC advisory continues to gradually intensify Celia and has it becoming a hurricane on Sunday. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. ...Tropical Waves... The axis of a tropical wave is located near 85W north of 05N, and extending over northern Panama and eastern Nicaragua. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the interior portions of Nicaragua and northern Panama. The axis of another tropical wave is located near 96W north of 09N extending over southeastern Mexico. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are observed within 180 nm east of the wave axis. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 09N95W to 11N102W to 10N106W. It resumes from 12N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered strong convection is within 240 nm south of the axis between 100W and 104W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of axis between 87W and 89W, between 92W and 97W and also from 07N to 11N between 113W and 122W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: A ridge extending from the N central Pacific to SW of the Baja California peninsula near 23N110W will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the region north of 20N through Saturday. Fresh to strong NW winds are anticipated along the California coast over the weekend. Large NW swell could cause seas N of 28N and W of 118W to build to between 8 and 9 feet on Monday. South of 15N east of 120W: Tropical Storm Celia is moving through the waters west of 110W. See above for more on Tropical Storm Celia. Winds will continue pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo for at least the next several days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during the overnight hours with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. West of 120W: See the special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas and on Tropical Storm Celia. A large area of seas 8 ft or greater have expanded outward from Blas to cover much of the area north of 10N and west of 125W. As Blas continues to weaken, seas in this area will begin to diminish. However, Celia will continue developing and move across this region during the first half of next week. As it does so, the coverage of seas 8 ft or greater will increase once again. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected to develop along the California coast over the weekend. Large NW swell could cause seas N of 28N and E of 125W to build to between 8 and 9 feet on Monday. $$ Aguirre