000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 UTC Fri Jul 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 17.8N 130W at 1500 UTC Jul 08. Blas is moving west-northwest or 300 deg at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 20N between 127W and 132W. Blas is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm later tonight, and continue weakening as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a more stable environment. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 12.6N 112.8W at 1500 UTC Jul 08. Celia is moving westward or 275 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain are now 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present within 240 nm of a line from 08N120W to 14N110W. The latest NHC advisory continues to intensify Celia and has it becoming a hurricane on Sunday. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. ...Tropical Waves... The axis of a tropical wave is located near 82W north of 03N extending over Panama. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 13N to 16N between 93W and 99W. The axis of another tropical wave is located near 94W north of 09N extending over southeastern Mexico. Scattered moderate scattered strong convection is present within 90 nm either side of a line from 04N77W to 14N84W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N95W to 11N105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was present within 240 nm of a line from 08N120W to 14N110W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: A ridge extending from the N central Pacific to SW of the Baja California peninsula near 23N110W will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the region north of 20N through Saturday. Fresh to strong NW winds are anticipated along the California coast over the weekend. Large NW swell could cause seas N of 28N and W of 118W to build to between 8 and 9 feet on Monday. South of 15N east of 120W: Tropical Storm Celia is moving through the waters west of 110W. See above for more on Tropical Storm Celia. Winds will continue pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo for at least the next several days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during the overnight hours with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. West of 120W: See the special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas and on Tropical Storm Celia. A large area of seas 8 ft or greater have expanded outward from Blas to cover much of the area north of 10N and west of 125W. As Blas continues to weaken, seas in this area will begin to diminish. However, Celia will continue developing and move across this region during the first half of next week. As it does so, the coverage of seas 8 ft or greater will increase once again. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected to develop along the California coast over the weekend. Large NW swell could cause seas N of 28N and E of 125W to build to between 8 and 9 feet on Monday. $$ cam