000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
505 UTC Fri Jul 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Blas is centered near 17.4N 129.4W at 0900 UTC Jul 08.
Blas is moving west-northwest or 300 deg at 9 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 972 mb. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 90 nm southeast and 75 nm northwest
semicircles. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted elsewhere from 15N to 19N between 127W and 131W. Blas is
forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later tonight, and continue
to weaken thereafter as it moves over cooler sea surface
temperatures and into a more stable environment. Refer to latest
NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC
and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details.

Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 12.5N 112.0W at 0900
UTC Jul 08 moving westward or 275 deg at 5 kt. Maximum sustained
winds remain at 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm northwest and 150 nm southeast
semicircles. The latest NHC advisory has the depression reaching
tropical storm intensity today with gradual intensification
forecast thereafter. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for
additional details.

...Tropical Waves...

The axis of a tropical wave is located near 91W north of 05N
extending into Central America near western Guatemala. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms area noted north of 12N into Central
America between 90W and 93W.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 09N85W to 09N92W to
11N105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 82W and 86W.
scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120
nm south of the monsoon trough between 94W and 104W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N east of 120W:

A ridge extending from the N central Pacific to SW of the Baja
California peninsula near 23N110W will maintain gentle to
moderate winds across the region north of 20N through Saturday.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed over the Gulf of
California, to the E of a trough over the Baja California
peninsula. 

South of 15N east of 120W: 

Tropical Depression Four-E is moving through the waters west of
110w. See above for more on TD Four-E. Winds will pulse over the
Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of days. Winds will peak
near 20 kt during the overnight hours with the added component of
nocturnal drainage flow.

West of 120W:

See the special features section above for details on Hurricane
Blas and on Tropical Depression Four-E. A large area of seas 8 ft
or greater that will expand outward from Blas covering much of the
entire area north of 10N and west of 125W today.

$$
AL