000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080251 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 08 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 16.9N 128.6W at 0300 UTC Jul 08. Blas is moving west-northwest or 295 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds have continued to diminished, and as of the 03 UTC advisory are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. The eye of Blas filled in with cloud cover during the day as noted in the latest visible imagery. The rings of cold top convection around the center thinned out during the afternoon on Thursday as well. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the eye in the south and within 60 nm in the north quadrants. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 60 nm of the center. Blas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm in 48 hours, and continue to weaken thereafter as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a more stable environment. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 12.4N 111.7W at 0300 UTC Jul 08 moving westward at 270 deg at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The depression is maintaining steady state for intensity tonight. Satellite imagery show that the center has become larger. Convection near the center remains minimal. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in a band within 30 nm of a line from 13N112W to 15N110W to 15N107W, and also from 11N to 15N between 103W and 107W. The anticipated intensification of the depression to a tropical storm has been delayed likely due to it moving over a cold pocket of sea surface temperature left behind from Blas. The latest NHC advisory has the depression strengthening to a tropical cyclone by Friday evening. Gradual strengthening is forecast thereafter. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. ...Tropical Waves... The southern portion of a tropical wave axis extends from western Honduras and eastern El Salvador along 89W south to near 09N. The wave is moving west at 15 kt. It will move over the waters north of 10N Friday through Saturday, at which time it is forecast to have its axis across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and just inland Central America behind the wave are reaching the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 09N94W to 11N102W to 13N108W where it ends. It then resumes at 12N130W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the axis between 108W and 110w. Scattered strong convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 88W and 92W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm s of the axis between 100W and 104W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: A ridge extending from the N central Pacific to SW of the Baja California peninsula near 22N110W will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the region north of 20N through Saturday. Moderate S winds are observed over the Gulf of California, to the E of a trough over the Baja California peninsula. Winds over the Gulf could become fresh during the morning hours N of 29N through Sat morning. On Thu winds and seas will increase N of 09N and W of 110W as the coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases over the same area in association with an intensifying T.D. Four-E. South of 15N east of 120W: Aside from Tropical Depression Four-E mentioned above, the main weather players will be scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing along the monsoon trough and off the coast of Central America, particularly at night. In addition, moderate to fresh gap wind flow will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through early on Saturday. West of 120W: See the special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas and on Tropical Depression Four-E. Winds of tropical storm force or greater will shift WNW across the central waters. The area of winds will be surrounded by a large area of seas 8 ft or greater that will expand outward across almost the entire area N of 10N through Friday night. $$ AGUIRRE