000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072201
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Blas is centered near 16.6N 127.8W at 2100 UTC Jul 07.
Blas is moving west-northwest or 290 deg at 9 kt. Maximum
sustained winds have diminished some since this morning to 
100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 964 mb. Blas has begun to slowly weaken as it continues moving
west-northwest. The eye of Blas has filled in with cloud cover 
during the day as noted in visible imagery. The rings of cold top
convection around the center have thinned out during the afternoon
as well. Scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the 
eye, except within 90 nm in the southern quadrant. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 30 nm 
of a line from 14.5N128W to 15N127W to 16N126W. Blas is forecast
to weaken to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and continue to
weaken thereafter as it moves over cooler sea surface
temperatures and into a more stable environment. Refer to latest
NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC
and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details.

Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 12.4N 111.7W at 2100
UTC Jul 07 moving westward at 275 deg at 7 kt. Maximum sustained
winds remain 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. The depression has not become better
organized today since last night. Although satellite imagery 
shows clusters of increasing deep increasing in coverage, it
is not organized in a continuous banding type pattern. Scattered
strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 107W and 110W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection exists from 13N
to 16N between 104W and 112W. The anticipated intensification of
the depression to a tropical storm has been delayed due to its
disorganized structure, and the fact that it is forecast to move
over the cold wake left behind from Blas. The latest NHC advisory
has the depression strengthening to a tropical cyclone at 18z on
Friday. Gradual strengthening is forecast thereafter. Refer to
latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details.

...Tropical Waves...

The southern portion of tropical wave presently over Honduras and
Nicaragua will move over the waters north of 10N Friday through
Saturday, at which time it is forecast to have its axis across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
expected with the wave.


..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 10N97W to 11N107W
where it ends. It then resumes at 11N130W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered to numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of 
the axis between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm s of the axis between 85W and
89W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of 
the axis between 92W and 98W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N east of 120W:

A ridge extending from the N central Pacific to SW of the Baja
California peninsula near 22N110W will maintain gentle to
moderate winds across the region north of 20N through Saturday.
Moderate S winds are observed over the Gulf of California, to the
E of a trough over the Baja California peninsula. Winds over the
Gulf could become fresh during the morning hours N of 29N through
Sat morning. On Thu winds and seas will increase N of 09N and W of
110W as the coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases over
the same area in association with an intensifying T.D. Four-E.

South of 15N east of 120W: 

Aside from newly formed Tropical Depression Four-E mentioned
above, the main weather players will be scattered showers and
thunderstorms continuing along the monsoon trough and off the
coast of Central America, particularly at night. In addition,
moderate to fresh gap wind flow will pulse through the Gulf of
Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through
early on Saturday.

West of 120W:

See the special features section above for details on Hurricane
Blas and on Tropical Depression Four-E. Winds of tropical storm
force or greater will shift WNW across the central waters. The
area of winds will be surrounded by a large area of seas 8 ft or
greater that will expand outward across almost the entire area N
of 10N through Friday night.

$$
AGUIRRE