000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1326 UTC Thu Jul 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200Z UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 16.2N 127.1W at 1500 UTC Jul 07. Blas is moving west-northwest or 290 deg at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds have diminished slightly during the past 6 hours to 110 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Blas has begun to slowly weaken as it continues moving west-northwest. It still displays a large eye around 20 nm in diameter. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center, mainly in the southern semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 90 nm of the center. Blas is forecast to continue weakening as it moves over cooler waters. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 12.7N 110.8W at 1500 UTC Jul 07 moving west-northwest at 285 deg at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. This system is gradually becoming more organized, but most of the convection is displaced E of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is located from 09N to 14N between 107W and 115W. T.D. Four-E is still forecast to intensify today and become a tropical storm this afternoon. It will continue strengthening and become a hurricane by late Saturday as it moves W. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 11N106W...then from 11N129W to 10N138W. The ITCZ continues from 10N138W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present within 240 nm of the monsoon trough axis east of 106W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis W of 129W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: A ridge extending from the N central Pacific to SW of the Baja California peninsula near 22N110W will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the region north of 20N through late week. Moderate S winds are observed over the Gulf of California, to the E of a trough over the Baja California peninsula. Winds over the Gulf could become fresh during the morning hours N of 29N through Sat morning. On Thu winds and seas will increase N of 09N and W of 110W as the coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases over the same area in association with an intensifying T.D. Four-E. South of 15N east of 120W: Aside from newly formed Tropical Depression Four-E mentioned above, the main weather players will be scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing along the monsoon trough and off the coast of Central America, particularly at night. In addition, moderate to fresh gap wind flow will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through early Tuesday. West of 120W: The remnants of Agatha have crossed to the W of 140W. Winds and seas in the vicinity of the remnants are 20 kt or less and less than 8 ft, respectively. See the special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas and on Tropical Depression Four-E. Winds of tropical storm force or greater will shift WNW across the central waters. The area of winds will be surrounded by a large area of seas 8 ft or greater that will expand outward across almost the entire area N of 10N through Friday night. $$ cam