000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070924 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 924 UTC Thu Jul 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 15.9N 126.4W at 0900 UTC Jul 07. moving west-northwest or 290 deg at 9 kt. The maximum sustained winds continue at 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. The hurricane has changed little in intensity over the past 24 hours as it moved west-northwest. It currently displays a large eye, around 20 nm. Numerous strong convection is noted in 75 nm of the center, mainly in the southern semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also noted within 180 nm in the eastern semicircle. Blas is forecast to weaken starting today as it moves into cooler sea surface temperatures. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 12.6N 110.2W at 0900 UTC Jul 07 moving west-northwest at 285 deg at 7 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The tropical depression is becoming slightly more organized, with a low level center becoming more evident on recent satellite imagery, although it remains better developed in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm in the northeast quadrant, with numerous to strong convection noted farther to the east, from 11N to 15N between 104W and 106W. T.D. Four-E is forecast to intensify today and become a tropical storm this afternoon. It will continue to strengthen and reach hurricane strength by late Saturday as it moves westward. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 08N80W to 10N105W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough axis east of 82W, mainly in the Gulf of Panama. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm south and 90 nm north of the axis between 95W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: A ridge extending from the north central Pacific to S of the Baja California peninsula near 19N 110W will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the region north of 20N through late week. Moderate southerly winds are noted over the Gulf of California, to the east of a trough over the Baja California peninsula. These winds may reach 15 to 20 kt this morning in the Gulf of California north of 30N. On Thu winds and seas will increase N of 10N and west of 110W as the coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases in association with the intensifying Tropical Depression Four-E. South of 15N east of 120W: Aside from newly formed Tropical Depression Four-E mentioned above, the main issues will be scattered showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and off the coast of Central America particularly at night. In addition, moderate to fresh gap wind flow will begin to pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo during overnight and early morning hours through early Sunday. West of 120W: The remnant low of Agatha is centered at 20N139W at 0600 UTC Jul 07, with a pressure of 1014 mb. Although there is currently no associated deep convection, fresh winds were suggested by the 0640 UTC Ascat to be within 240 nm of the low in the northeast quadrant. The low is forecast to continue weakening into a trough through the next 36 to 48 hours as winds diminishing below 20 kt and seas subside below 8 ft through 72 hours as the remnants move west. See the special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas and on Tropical Depression Four-E. Tropical storm force and greater conditions will shift WNW across the central waters surrounded by a large area of seas 8 ft or greater that will expand outward across almost the entire area through Friday. $$ Christensen