000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070223 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 6 2016 corrected header time Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 15.2N 124.7W at 2100 UTC Jul 06. moving west-northwest or 285 deg at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds continue at 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Latest satellite imagery shows quite an impressive outer and inner core around Blas with a very distinct eye, about 25 nm in diameter, that is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of numerous strong convection within 90 nm se quadrant. Scattered strong convection surround the eye elsewhere within 60-75 nm within the ring. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 16N between 120W and 124W. Blas is still forecast to begin to weaken as it moves across lowering sea surface temperatures. The trend as indicated by model guidance is for it to continue to gradually weaken over the next 48 hours. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 12.2N 109.1W at 2100 UTC Jul 06 moving west at 280 deg at 7 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Latest satellite imagery during the afternoon shows the depression has a well-defined circulation, and convection around and near the center is increasing. The convection is of the scattered moderate to isolated strong type within 180 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant, and within 130 nm of the center in the southwest quadrant. Favorable upper level conditions are forecast to allow for the depression to strengthen to a tropical storm by early Thursday afternoon near 12.3N 111.4W, and continue to gradually strengthen through Friday as it moves in a westward direction. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N95W to 11N106w. It resumes from southwest of Blas to 11N137W the continues as ITCZ axis to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the axis between 97W and 103W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm s of the trough axis between 93W and 97W, and between 103W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: A ridge extending from the north central Pacific to S of the Baja California peninsula near 19N 110W will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the region north of 20N through late week. The Ascat pass from 1654Z this afternoon captured strong southeast winds over the northern Gulf of California. These winds are forecast to diminish on Thursday as the pressure gradient between the Baja California thermal trough, and high pressure ridging west of Baja California slackens. Moderate southerly flow will continue across the central Gulf of California through early Thursday. On Thu winds and seas will increase N of 10N and west of 110W as the coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases in association with the intensifying Tropical Depression Four-E. South of 15N east of 120W: Aside from newly formed Tropical Depression Four-E mentioned above, the main issues will be scattered showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and off the coast particularly at night. In addition, moderate to fresh gap wind flow will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo during overnight and early morning hours through early Sunday. West of 120W: The remnant low of Agatha is centered at 21N137W at 1800 UTC Jul 06. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. Although there is currently no associated deep convection, fresh winds are observed in the northern semicircle of the low within 210 nm. The low is forecast to continue weakening into a trough through the next 36 to 48 hours as winds diminishing below 20 kt and seas subside below 8 ft through 72 hours as the remnants move west. See the special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas and on Tropical Depression Four-E. Tropical storm force and greater conditions will shift WNW across the central waters surrounded by a large area of seas 8 ft or greater that will expand outward across almost the entire area from 08-28N. $$ Aguirre