000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061618
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1554 UTC Wed Jul 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Blas is centered at 15.0N 123.6W at 1500 UTC Jul 06.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Blas is moving
west-northwest or 285 deg at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds
are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection
surrounds a 25 nm diameter eye within 60 nm of the center.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere
from 11N to 17N between 119W and 126W. Blas is still forecast to
gradually weaken but will remain a hurricane through 48 hours with
70 kt winds near 17.5N 130.4W. Refer to latest NHC public
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the
full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC for additional details.

A surface low is near 12N108W with an estimated minimum central
pressure of 1007 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is currently noted NE of the center from 12N to 15N
between 105W and 110W. Although this area of convection remains
unorganized, there is high probability for tropical cyclone
formation.
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N105W. then resumes
from 13N126W to 11n137W. The ITCZ continues from 11N138W to beyond
11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present
from 06N to 11N between 89W and 105W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N east of 120W:

A ridge extending from the north central Pacific to S of the Baja
California peninsula near 19N 110W will maintain gentle to
moderate winds across the region north of 20N through late week.
Moderate to occasionally fresh S flow will persist along the
central and northern Gulf of California between the ridge and
troughing over Baja California Norte. On Thu winds and seas will
increase N of 10N and west of 110W as the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms increases in association with developing low
pressure near 12N108W.

South of 15N east of 120W: 

Aside from the developing low pressure mentioned above, the main
issues will be scattered showers and thunderstorms along the
monsoon trough and off the coast particularly at night. In
addition, moderate to fresh gap wind flow will pulse through the
Gulf of Papagayo during overnight and early morning hours through
early Sunday.

West of 120W:

The remnant low of Agatha is centered at 20N136W at 1200 UTC Jul
06. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Although
there is currently no associated deep convection, fresh winds are
observed in the northern semicircle of the low within 210 nm. The
low is forecast to continue weakening into a trough through 48
hours as winds diminishing below 20 kt and seas subside below 8
ft through 72 hours as the remnants move west.

See the special feature section above for details on Hurricane
Blas. Tropical storm force and greater conditions will shift WNW
across the central waters surrounded by a large area of seas 8 ft
or greater that will expand outward across almost the entire area
from 08-28N.

$$
cam