000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 910 UTC Wed Jul 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered at 14.7N 122.7W at 0900 UTC Jul 06. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Blas is moving w, or 280 deg at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection surrounds a 15- 20 nm diameter eye within 75 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 16N between 118W and 125W. Blas is forecast gradually weaken but will remain a hurricane through 48 hours with 75 kt winds near 16.9N 129.7W. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. A surface low is near 12N107W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1011 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection is currently noted within 60 nm of the center. Although this large area of convection remains unorganized, there is high probability for tropical cyclone formation. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 95W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: A ridge extending from the north central Pacific through southern tip of the Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate flow across the region north of 20N through late week. Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow will persist along the central and northern Gulf of California between the ridge and troughing over Baja California Norte. Meanwhile winds and seas will increase south of 20N and west of 105W along with scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the developing low pressure near 12N107W. South of 15N east of 120W: Aside from the developing low pressure mentioned above, the main issues will be scattered showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and off the coast particularly at night. In addition, moderate to fresh gap flow can be expected through the Gulf of Papagayo during overnight and early morning hours through early Sunday. Seas will remain 4 to 6 ft outside of the vicinity of the developing low pressure. West of 120W: The remnant low of Agatha is centered at 20N135W at 0900 UTC Jul 06. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. Although there is currently no convection, fresh ne to e winds are observed within 90 nm mainly in the northeast semicircle of the low pressure. The low is forecast to weaken into a trough through 48 hours with winds diminishing below 20 kt and seas subsiding below 8 ft through 72 hours as the remnants move west. See the special feature section above for details on Hurricane Blas. Tropical storm force and greater conditions will shift wnw across the central waters surrounded by a large area of seas 8 ft or greater that will expand outward across almost the entire area from 08-28N. $$ Christensen