000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060235 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 06 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered at 14.4N 121.7W at 0300 UTC Jul 06. The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Blas is moving w, or 275 deg at 11 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous strong convection surrounds a 15- 20 nm diameter eye within 60 nm se semicircle and within 90 nm over the nw semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 210 nm either side of a line from 11N119W to 16N123W. Blas is forecast to further strengthen to 130 kt gusts to 160 kt on Wed, then begin to quickly weaken in 48 hours. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. A surface low is analyzed along a weakening tropical wave near 12N107W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1008 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently noted within 180 nm either side of a line from 07.5N107W to 17N105W. Although this large area of convection remains unorganized, there is high probability for tropical cyclone formation. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave is analyzed n of 10N along 96W and has been moving w about 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The waves lacks significant convection at the moment. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N94W to 10N105W. A surface trough is analyzed s of Hurricane Blas from 13N124W to 11N132W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough, roughly within 120 nm either side of a line from 08N88W to 08.5N100W. Similar convection is noted mostly s of the surface trough, within 120 nm of line from 08.5N126W to 09N133W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas which will affect the far sw portion of this area through early Thu. Tropical storm conditions and greater are forecast across the waters s of 16N between 118-120W early tonight. Combined seas of 8 ft or greater will shift w of the area early Thu. A w to e orientated ridge currently from 23N120W to 21N108W, will shift to a position from 24N120W to 16N99W on Wed, and from 23N120W to 16N104W on Thu night. Expect moderate nw flow to develop during the late afternoons into the early evenings n of the ridge across the coastal waters of the northern Baja California Peninsula for the remainder of the week. A tropical low currently s of the area near 12N107W, is expected to strengthen near 12N109W on Thu, with its envelope of fresh ne-e winds spreading n into the waters s of 16N between 110-117W on Thu night into Fri. Strong ne to e winds are expected s of 16N between 112-117W on Fri, and generally to the s of 17N between 117-120W on Sat all associated with this low. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas that will continue westward across the nw portion with tropical storm force and greater conditions shifting w of 120W tonight, and seas 8 ft or greater shifting w of 120W on Thu. See special features above for details on surface low near 12N107W. Fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo overnight and each night through Sat night. W of 120W: The remnant low of Agatha is centered at 20N134W at 0300 UTC Jul 06. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Although there is currently no convection, fresh ne to e winds are observed within 45 nm se and within 120 nm over the nw quadrant. The low is forecast to reach near 21.5N137.5W on Wed with winds diminishing below 20 kt and seas subsiding below 8 ft. See the special feature section above for details on Hurricane Blas. Tropical storm force and greater conditions will shift wnw across the central waters surrounded by a large area of seas 8 ft or greater that will expand outward across almost the entire area from 08-28N. $$ Nelson