000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 05 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Blas is centered at 14.3N 120.9W at 2100 UTC Jul 05. The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Blas is moving w, or 275 deg at 14 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection surrounds a 20 nm diameter eye within 60 nm either side of a line from 13N120W to 16N121W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 180 nm either side of a line from 11N117W to 16.5N121W. Blas is forecast to further intensify with maximum winds of 120 kt in about 48 hours. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave is analyzed n of 10N along 94W and has been moving w about 15 kt over the past 24 hours. A cluster of scattered moderate convection is observed w of the wave axis within 90 nm of 13N96.5W. A surface low estimated at 1009 mb has developed near 11.5N106W along a tropical wave analyzed from 08N106W to 17N106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of a line from 06.5N106W to 17N105W, and within 60 nm either side of a line from 15.5N99W to 12.5N103W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N104W. A surface trough is analyzed s of Hurricane Blas from 13N123W to 13.5N135.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted s of the monsoon trough, roughly within 60 nm of 05N79W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along the monsoon trough within 120 nm either side of a line from 09N85W to 08N98W. similar convection is noted mostly s of the surface trough, within 120 nm of line from 11N124W to 10N131W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas which will affect the far sw portion of this area through early Thu. Tropical storm conditions and greater are forecast across the waters s of 16N between 118-120W early tonight. Combined seas of 8 ft or greater will shift w of the area late Thu. A w to e orientated ridge currently from 23N120W to 21N108W, will shift to a position from 24N120W to 16N99W on Wed, and from 23N120W to 16N104W on Thu night. Expect moderate nw flow to develop during the late afternoons into the early evenings n of the ridge across the coastal waters of the northern Baja California Peninsula for the remainder of the week. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters. A tropical low currently s of the area near 11.5N106W, is expected to strengthen near 11N110W on Thu, with its envelope of fresh ne-e winds spreading n into the waters s of 16N between 110-117W on Thu night into Fri. Strong ne to e winds are expected s of 16N between 112-117W on Fri, and generally to the s of 17N between 117-120W on Sat all associated with this low. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas that will continue westward across the nw portion with tropical storm force and greater conditions shifting w of 120W tonight, and seas 8 ft or greater shifting w of 120W on Thu. Fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo overnight and each night through Sat night. A 1009 mb tropical low pressure has developed near 11.5N106W along a tropical wave extending from 08N106W TO 17N106W. The low is forecast to move nw to near 11N111W on Thu, with strong winds developing over it's northern semicircle. Winds are expected to further increase to strong to near gale around the low over the upcoming weekend as it passes w through the waters between 115- 120W. This low will likely develop into a tropical cyclone in 3- 5 days. W of 120W: The remnant low of Agatha is centered at 20N133W at 2100 UTC Jul 05. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Although there is currently no convection, strong ne to e winds are observed within 150 nm over the nw quadrant. The low is forecast to reach near 21N136W on Wed with only fresh winds within 90 nm nw of the center where 6-8 ft seas are expected. The low is forecast to weaken to an open trough just w of 140W on Thu. See the special feature section above for details on Hurricane Blas with maximum winds of 110 kt, and expected to further increase to 120 kt. Tropical storm force and greater conditions will shift wnw across the central waters surrounded by a large area of seas 8 ft or greater that will expand outward across almost the entire area from 08-28N. $$ Nelson