000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051551 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1301 UTC Tue Jul 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Hurricane Blas is centered at 14.1N 119.5W at 1500 UTC Jul 05.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Blas is moving
west, or 280 deg at 12 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 95 kt
with gusts to 115 kt. Strong convection is noted within 120 nm
east and 90 nm west of the center of Blas, with moderate to
strong convection from 10N to 16N between 116W and 121W. Blas is
forecast to further intensify, reaching 120 kt by Wednesday
morning. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO
headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory
under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 94W and north of 05N.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 10N between
92W and 95W.

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 105W and north of
05N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 10N to
20N between 102W and 108W. This wave will be one to watch with
interest, especially towards the end of the week and the weekend,
as the environment it moves into will become more favorable for
tropical cyclogenesis.
 
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 09N85W to 08.5N88W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N88W
TO 07N95W to 09N102W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted north of 03N and east of 81W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

The northern periphery of Hurricane Blas with winds 20 to 30 kt
and seas 10 to 15 ft is affecting the area within approximately
240 nm of Clarion Island. Recent observations from Clarion
indicated 15 to 20 kt winds. Seas are likely 8 to 10 ft in the
vicinity of Clarion. A trough will meander east and west over
the Baja California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California
for the next several days supporting gentle to occasionally
moderate southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters.

Another tropical low is expected to strengthen south of the area
near 12N110W by late Wednesday, associated with the tropical wave
mentioned above. The northern part of this low will bring fresh
ne-e winds spreading north into the waters s of 16N between
110-115W on Thu night into Fri.
      
South of 15N and east of 120W: 

Hurricane Blas will shift west of 120W today. See above for more
on Blas. Fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of
the Gulf of Papagayo overnight and each night through Wed night,
before winds diminish over this area.

Another tropical low pressure is forecast to form near 12N108W
later today, associated to the tropical wave mentioned above. The
low is forecast to move west to near 12N110W by Wed, and to
12N112W by late Thu with strong winds developing over the northern
semicircle. Winds are expected to continue to increase to strong
to near gale around the low over the weekend as it passes west
through the waters between 115-120W. 

West of 120W:

Low pressure, the remnants of Agatha, is centered near 20N131.5W.
The low will continue to move westward and eventually open into a
trough by Thursday as it moves west of 140W.

See the special feature section above for details on Hurricane
Blas which will cross 120W later today.

$$
AL