000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050949 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 930 UTC Tue Jul 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Blas is centered at 14.2N 118.1W at 0900 UTC Jul 05. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Blas is moving west-northwest, or 285 deg at 12 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center of Blas, with moderate to strong convection from 11N to 16N between 115W and 120W. Blas is forecast to further intensify with maximum winds of 110 kt in the next 24 hours. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave is analyzed north of 10N along roughly 91W/92W and has been moving w about 20 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted with this tropical wave. A tropical wave is analyzed north of 10N along roughly 102W/103W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 11N to 14N between 100W and 105W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N85W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ reaches from 07N85W TO 08N100W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted off the coast of Colombia within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough and east of 80W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: The northern periphery of Hurricane Blas with winds 20 to 30 kt and seas 10 to 15 ft is affecting the area within approximately 240 nm of Clarion Island. Recent observations from Clarion indicated 15 to 20 kt winds. Seas are likely 8 to 10 ft in the vicinity of Clarion. Farther east, scattered thunderstorms are noted near Cabo Corrientes ahead of the approaching tropical wave. A trough will meander east and west over the Baja California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters. Another tropical low is expected to strengthen south of the area near 12N110W by late Wednesday, with its envelope to fresh ne-e winds spreading north into the waters s of 16N between 110-115W on Thu night into Fri. South of 15N and east of 120W: Aside from Blas, the main issue will be fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo overnight and each night through Wed night, then guidance suggests only moderate drainage flow. Another tropical low pressure is forecast to form near 12N108W later today, and move west to near 12N110W by Wed, and to 12N112W by late Thu with strong winds developing over the northern semicircle. Winds are expected to continue to increase to strong to near gale around the low over the weekend as it passes west through the waters between 115-120W. This low will likely develop into a tropical cyclone in 3-5 days. West of 120W: The remnant low of Agatha is centered at 19.5N 130.9W at 0900 UTC Jul 05. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. A scatterometer pass from 06 UTC indicated 20 to 25 kt still within 120 nm in the northeast semicircle of the low, but convection has diminished due to dry air entraining into the center of the low. The remnant low is moving west or 280 deg at 10 kt. The low will continue to move westward and eventually open into a trough by Thursday as it moves west of 140W. See the special feature section above for details on Hurricane Blas that is expected to continue to intensify with maximum winds near 110 kt near 15N122W in the next 24 hours, then gradually weaken as it continues to the west-northwest through Saturday. $$ Christensen