000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050235 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 05 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Blas is centered at 14.0N 116.8W at 0300 UTC Jul 05. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Blas is moving w, or 290 deg at 12 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 60 nm of line from 15.5N117W to 12.5N115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 270 nm either side of a line from 17N117W to 09N108W. Blas is forecast to further intensify with maximum winds of 100 kt in about 24 hours. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave is analyzed n of 11N along 90W and has been moving w about 20 kt. Only a few small clusters of convection is observed within 120 nm w of the wave axis along 11.5N. A tropical wave is analyzed from 09N103W to 17N101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 06.5N105W to 15.5N100.5W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N95W. A surface trough is analyzed from 12N123W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed n of 05N between 79-84W ...and within 90 NM of the surface trough. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas which will affect the far sw portion through early Thu. Tropical storm conditions, or greater, are forecast across the waters s of 16N between 115-120W through Tue night. A w to e orientated ridge will build se from 26N120W to 16N103W on Tue night as Blas passes w of 120W. Expect moderate nw flow to develop during the late afternoons into the early evenings over the coastal waters of the northern Baja Peninsula beginning on Tue. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and the northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters. Another tropical low is expected to strengthen s of the area near 11N111W on Thu, with its envelope to fresh ne-e winds spreading n into the waters s of 16N between 110-115W on Thu night into Fri. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas that will move westward across the nw portion with associated conditions shifting w of 120W on Thu. Fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo overnight and each night through Wed night, then guidance suggests only moderate drainage flow. Another tropical low pressure is forecast to form near 11N106W on Tue, and move nw to near 11N111W on Thu with strong winds developing over the n semicircle. Winds are expected to continue to increase to strong to near gale around the low over the weekend as it passes w through the waters between 115-120W. This low will likely develop into a tropical cyclone in 3-5 days. W of 120W: The remnant low of Agatha is centered at 19.3N 130.4W at 0300 UTC Jul 05. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The remnant low is moving w or 280 deg at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt, with gusts to 40 kt near the center. The low is experiencing dry air entrainment and strong southwesterly wind shear with intermittent scattered moderate convection now well to the ne of the exposed center, roughly within 60 nm of 22.5N126W. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details. See the special feature section above for details on Hurricane Blas that is expected to continue to intensify with maximum winds near 100 kt. The radius of 8 ft seas or greater is expected to spread w across 120W tonight, and tropical storm force or greater conditions will arrive at the far e waters along 120W between 13-16N early Tue. This tropical cyclone will affect most of the waters w of 120W this week as the radius of seas 8 ft or greater will extend out nearly 900 nm to the outward from the center. $$ Nelson