000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 04 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered at 13.7N 115.7W at 2100 UTC Jul 04. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Blas is moving wnw, or 290 deg at 12 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 150 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted elsewhere within 240 nm se and nw quadrants. Blas is forecast to further intensify with maximum winds of 100 kt in about 48 hours. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Depression Agatha is centered at 18.8N 129.4W at 2100 UTC Jul 04. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Agatha is moving w or 280 deg at 11 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt, with gusts to 40 kt. Agatha is experiencing dry air entrainment and southwesterly wind shear with convection now well to the ne of the exposed center roughly within 60 nm of 21N126.5W. Agatha is forecast to weaken to a remnant low pres center near 19.6N 132.7W on Tue and near 19.6N 136.7W on Wed. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave is analyzed n of 10.5N along 88W and has been moving w about 20 kt. Only a few small clusters of convection is observed within 120 nm w of the wave axis along 12N. A tropical wave is analyzed from 10N102W to 17N99.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm either side of a line from 11.5N95W to 13N102W to 09N108W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N95W. A surface trough is analyzed from 12N123W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 04-09N e of 90W...and within 75 NM of the surface trough. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas which will affect the far sw portion through early Thu. Tropical storm conditions, or greater, are forecast across the waters s of 16N between 115-120W through Tue night. A w to e orientated ridge will build se from 26N120W to 16N103W on Tue night as Blas passes w of 120W. Expect moderate nw flow to develop during the late afternoons into the early evenings over the coastal waters of the northern Baja Peninsula beginning on Tue. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula, and the northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow across the Gulf of California waters. Another tropical low is expected to strengthen s of the area near 11N111W on Thu, with its envelope to fresh ne-e winds spreading n into the waters s of 16N between 110-115W on Thu night into Fri. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Hurricane Blas that will move westward across the nw portion with associated conditions shifting w of 120W on Thu. Fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each night through Wed night, then guidance suggests only moderate drainage flow. Another tropical low pressure is forecast to form near 11N106W on Tue, and move nw to near 11N111W on Thu with strong winds developing over the n semicircle. Winds are expected to continue to increase to strong to near gale around the low over the weekend as it passes w through the waters between 115-120W. This low will likely develop into a tropical cyclone in 3-5 days. W of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Depression Agatha currently in the central waters, and for Hurricane Blas that is expected to continue to intensify with maximum winds near 100 kt. The radius of 8 ft seas or greater is expected to spread w across 120W tonight, and tropical storm force or greater conditions will arrive at the far e waters along 120W between 13-16N early Tue. This tropical cyclone will affect most of the waters w of 120W this week as the radius of seas 8 ft or greater will extend out nearly 900 nm to the outward from the center. $$ Nelson