000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041004 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1004 UTC Mon Jul 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Agatha is centered at 18.1N 127.1W at 0900 UTC Jul 04. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Agatha is moving w-nw or 280 deg at 11 kt around the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. The maximum sustained winds are 35 kt, with gusts to 45 kt. Agatha is experiencing dry air entrainment and increasing southwesterly wind shear allowing the storm to weaken. Currently, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center of the storm. Agatha is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression late Mon. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Blas is centered at 12.7N 113.2W at 0900 UTC Jul 04. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Blas is moving west-northwest or 285 deg at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Currently scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm southeast and 240 nm northwest semicircles of the center. Blas has been quickly intensifying, and is forecast to become a minimal hurricane this morning and further intensify to a major hurricane within 48 hours. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave is analyzed north of 07N between 93W and 96W and has been moving west about 20 kt over the past several hours. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N105W. The monsoon trough reaches from 10N129W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 99W and 102W. Scattered moderate within 60 nm south of ITCZ between 128W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: Winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas 8 to 9 ft are noted on the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Blas, within 150 nm south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas to 9 ft will impact Clarion Island and the waters south of 22N and west of 115W from late tonight through late Wednesday as Blas passes to the west-northwest. Otherwise ridging will remain in place over the area maintaining generally modest winds and seas. A few overnight showers and thunderstorms will form off the Mexican coast south of 22N each evening. Looking ahead, another tropical low is expected to strengthen s of the area near 11N110W on Thu, with its envelope to fresh northeast- east winds spreading north into the waters south of 16N between 110-115W Thu night into Fri. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas that will move westward across the nw portion through early Thu. Fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each night through Thu night. Another tropical low is expected to begin to develop near 11N108W late Tue and move nw to near 12N112W late Thu with strong winds over the north semicircle. Winds are expected to continue to increase to strong to near gale around the low over weekend and it passes w through the waters between 115-120W. W of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha currently in the central waters and what is currently Tropical Storm Blas that is expected to intensify to major hurricane with the radius of 8 ft seas or greater spreading w across 120W late Mon. Tropical storm force or greater conditions will arrive at the far east waters along 120W between 13-16N late tonight. This tropical cyclone will affect most of the waters north of 12N this upcoming week as the radius of seas 8 ft or greater will extend out nearly 900 nm to the north of the center. $$ CHRISTENSEN