000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040234 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 04 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Agatha is centered at 18.0N 125.8W at 0300 UTC Jul 04. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Agatha is moving w-nw or 285 deg at 10 kt around the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. The maximum sustained winds are 35 kt, with gusts to 45 kt. Agatha is experiencing dry air entrainment, and will encounter increasing southwesterly wind shear over the next few days. Currently, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 129 nm of the center. Agatha is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression late Mon. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Blas is centered at 12.4N 112.2W at 0300 UTC Jul 04. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Blas is moving w or 285 deg at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Currently scattered moderate to strong convection is observed along a band within 30 nm of 12.5N111W to 11.5N111W to 11N113W to 13N113W. Scattered moderate isolated strong elsewhere from 08-17N between 106-115W. Blas has been quickly intensifying, and is forecast to become a minimal hurricane early Mon and further intensify to a major hurricane within 48 hours. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave is analyzed n of 07N along 81W and has been moving w about 20 kt over the past several hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 30 nm of the coast of Panama. A tropical wave is analyzed n of 07N along 93W and is moving w at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted s of 13N within 180 nm of the wave axis. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N105W. Scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms near 10N128W and extends w to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm either side of a line from 04N86W to 11N95W to 10N106W...within 30 nm of 11N122W. Isolated moderate to occasionally strong convection is observed within 30 nm either side of a line from 11N122W to 10N130W to 12N135W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas which will affect the far sw portion through early Thu. Tropical storm conditions will spread n across the waters s of 15.5N between 115-118W on Mon afternoon, with tropical storm or greater conditions expected across the waters s of 16N between 117-120W on Mon night into Tue, with these conditions shifting w of 120W late Tue. Otherwise, a w to e orientated ridge extends into the area from 26N120W to 19N106W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds observed around the ridge. A weak trough will pass e across the waters n of 29.5N early tonight. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow across the Gulf waters. Another tropical low is expected to strengthen s of the area near 11N110W on Thu, with its envelope to fresh ne-e winds spreading n into the waters s of 16N between 110-115W on Thu night into Fri. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas that will move westward across the nw portion through early Thu. Fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each night through Thu night. Another tropical low is expected to begin to develop near 11N108W late Tue and move nw to near 12N118W late Thu with strong winds over the n semicircle. Winds are expected to continue to increase to strong to near gale around the low over weekend and it passes w through the waters between 115-120W. W of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha currently in the central waters and what is currently Tropical Storm Blas that is expected to intensify to major hurricane with the radius of 8 ft seas or greater spreading w across 120W late Mon. Tropical storm force or greater conditions will arrive at the far e waters along 120W between 13-16N late Mon night. This tropical cyclone will affect most of the waters n of 12N this upcoming week as the radius of seas 8 ft or greater will extend out nearly 900 nm to the n of the center. $$ Nelson