000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032156 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 03 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Agatha is centered at 17.7N 125.1 W at 2100 UTC Jul 03. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Agatha is moving w-nw or 285 deg at 12 kt around the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. The maximum sustained winds are 40 kt, with gusts to 50 kt. agatha is experiencing dry air entrainment and increasing southwesterly wind shear. Currently, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 30 nm either side of a line from 18N125W to 16.5N124W. The storm is forecast to weaken to minimal tropical storm early Mon and further weaken to a tropical depression late mon. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Blas is centered at 12.2N 111.4W at 2100 UTC Jul 03. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. The storm is moving w or 285 deg at 11 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Currently scattered moderate to strong convection is observed n of the center within 90 nm either side of a line from 13N114W to 16N109W to 11N104W. Similar convection is noted within 270 nm over the se quadrant of center. Blas has been quickly intensifying, and is forecast to become a minimal hurricane early Mon and further intensify to a major hurricane within 48 hours. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave is analyzed n of 07N along 78W and has been moving w 20-25 kt over the past 24 hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed n of 04.5N to the e of 81W. A tropical wave is analyzed n of 08N along 90W and is moving w at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm w of the wave axis along 12N. A tropical wave is analyzed from 06-16N along 101W ad is expected to soon identity in the broad cyclonic circulation associated with tropical cyclone Blas. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 09N102W. Scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms near 11N130W and extends w to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 75 nm either side of a line from 06N78W to 10N103W, and within 60 nm of 13.5N97W. Isolated moderate to occasionally strong convection is observed within 30n of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas which will affect the far sw portion through early Thu. Tropical storm conditions will spread n across the waters s of 15.5N between 115-118W on Mon, with tropical storm or greater conditions expected across the waters s of 16N between 117-120W on Mon night, with these conditions shifting w of 120W late Tue. Otherwise, a w to e orientated ridge extends into the area from 26N120W to 19N106W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds observed around the ridge. A weak trough will pass e across the waters n of 29.5N early tonight. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting gentle to moderate southerly flow across the Gulf waters. Another tropical low is expected to strengthen s of the area near 11N110W on Thu, with its envelope to fresh ne-e winds spreading n into the waters s of 16N between 110-115W on Thu night into Fri. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas that will move westward across the nw portion through early Thu. Fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each night through Thu night. W of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha currently in the central waters and what is currently Tropical Storm Blas that is expected to intensify to major hurricane with the radius of 8 ft seas or greater spreading w across 120W late Mon. Tropical storm force or greater conditions will arrive at the far e waters along 120W between 13-16N late Mon night. This tropical cyclone will affect most of the waters n of 12N this upcoming week as the radius of seas 8 ft or greater will extend out nearly 900 nm to the n of the center. $$ Nelson