000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030956 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 933 UTC Sun Jul 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Agatha is centered at 17.0N 122.8W at 0900 UTC Jul 03. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Agatha is moving to the west-northwest or 290 deg at 12 kt around the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. The maximum sustained winds are 35 kt, with gusts to 45 kt within 40 nm over the northeast quadrant, and within 30 nm over the northwest and southeast quadrants of center. Strong convection is note within 90 nm of the center. The storm is forecast to intensify to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt today, then begin to weaken on Mon as environmental conditions become less favorable. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Blas was recently upgraded from a tropical storm and is centered at 11.7N 109.7W at 0900 UTC Jul 03. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The tropical storm is moving west-northwest or 285 deg at 12 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm west quadrant...and from 15N to 17N between 107W AND 110W. The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane near 13.1N 115.3W at 18 UTC Monday. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave moving off Costa Rica is enhancing scattered moderate convection within 75 nm of the coast. A tropical wave is analyzed north of 08n between 100W and 105W, and is enhancing scattered moderate convection off the Mexican coast north of 13N between 98W and 103W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough reaches from 09N84W to 11N102W, where it loses identity in the large cyclonic flow associated with tropical storm Agatha. The monsoon trough resumes s of Agatha near 12N122W TO 08N133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 85W and 100W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N and east of 120W: Expect winds to 20 to 30 kt and seas of 8 to 12 ft associated with Tropical Storm Blas within 180 nm to the southwest of Clarion Island by early Monday morning as Blas continues to the west- northwest and intensifies to hurricane strength. Winds and seas improve in this area by Monday night as Blas moves farther west. Otherwise, a ridge will persist from roughly 30N130W to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Expect generally moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft in open waters through early next week. South of 15N and east of 120W: Other than the development and movement of Tropical Storm Blas, expect fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each night through Wed night. Scattered convection will persist along the monsoon trough. W of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha currently in the central waters and Tropical Storm Blas with associated conditions crossing 120W between 10-17N on Mon night. The system will pass w across the central waters roughly from 10-20N this week passing s of a broad ridge across the northern waters. Otherwise, northerly swell from roughly 20N to 25N west of 125W will decay below 8 ft through early Tuesday. $$ CHRISTENSEN