000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030236 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC SUN Jul 03 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Agatha is centered at 16.6N 121.6W at 0300 UTC Jul 03. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Agatha is moving w-nw or 290 deg at 13 kt around the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. The maximum sustained winds are 35 kt, with gusts to 45 kt within 40 nm over the ne, and within 30 nm over the nw quadrants of center. Agatha is experiencing easterly wind shear with numerous strong convection currently observed within 150 nm w of the center. The storm is forecast to intensify to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt on Sun, then begin to weaken on Mon as environmental conditions become less favorable. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Three-E is centered at 11.1N 108.3W at 0300 UTC Jul 03. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The depression is moving w or 280 deg at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is organizing into a band over the w semicircle within 60 nm either side of a line 10N108W to 13N109W to 15N106W. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm within about 12 hours and continue to strengthen to a hurricane near 12.9N 116.0W at 00 UTC Tue. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave is analyzed n of 06N along 81W and is moving w at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed across the EPAC waters to the n of 04N between 80-85W. A tropical wave is analyzed from 07-17N between 100-102W and has been moving w at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm of 08.5N102W and 13.5N102W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 10N103W where it loses identity in the large cyclonic flow associated with tropical storm Agatha. The monsoon trough resumes s of Agatha near 12N129W, and continues nw to 12N138W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms, and then turns wsw to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side of a line from 06N85W to 08N99W, and within 45 nm of a line from 12N119W to 08N130W, and within 120 nm either side of a line from 14N132w to 11.5N140W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha which will affect the far sw portion through Sun. Otherwise, a w to e orientated ridge extends into the area from 25N120W to 17N103W, with gentle anticyclonic winds observed around the ridge. Little change expected until Sun afternoon when increasing winds and building seas will spread n across the waters s of 16N between 105-115W in association with the system that is currently Tropical Depression Three-E. The area of at least strong to near gale force winds, and large seas will shift w across the waters s of 18N between 110-120W from Sun night through Wed. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and northern Gulf of California for the next several days supporting gentle to moderate southerly flow across the Gulf waters, except moderate to occasionally fresh southerly breeze across the gulf waters to the n of 30N. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha that pass through the far nw waters early tonight. Also see the special features section above for details on newly formed Tropical Depression Three-E. Fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each night through Wed night. W of 120W: See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha currently in the central waters and Tropical Depression Three-E with associated conditions crossing 120W between 10-17N on Mon night. The system will pass w across the central waters roughly from 10-20N this week passing s of a broad ridge across the northern waters. $$ Nelson