000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022146
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 02 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Agatha is centered at 16.1N 120.1W, or about 815
miles wsw of the southern tip of Baja California at 2100 UTC Jul
02. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Agatha is
moving w-nw or 295 deg at 10 kt around the southern periphery of
the sub-tropical ridge. The maximum sustained winds are 35 kt,
with gusts to 45 kt within 40 nm over the ne, and within 30 nm
over the nw quadrants of center. Agatha is experiencing easterly
wind shear with numerous strong convection currently observed
within 150 nm w of the center. The storm is forecast to
intensify to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt on Sun, then begin to
weaken on Mon as environmental conditions become less favorable.
Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under
Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details.

A 1007 mb low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
11N106W, and has been moving w at about 6 kt. The gradient has
tightened some with strong winds observed within 150 nm over the
e semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed within 270 nm over the w semicircle of the center.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable
for tropical cyclone development, which is likely within a day
or so.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES..

A tropical wave is passing w across Panama accompanied by
scattered moderate isolated strong convection over Panama and
the sw Caribbean.  

A tropical wave is analyzed from 07-14N along 100W and has been
moving w at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed within 90 nm e and within 240 nm w of the
wave axis. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N92W through the
embedded surface low at 11N106W to 14N112W, where it loses
identity in the large cyclonic flow associated with tropical
storm Agatha. The monsoon trough resumes s of Agatha near
12N121W, and continues sw to 09N127W, then turns nw to 11N133W
where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms, and then turns
sw to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed within 180 nm either side of a line from
06N78W to 10N95W, and within 45 nm of a line from 11.5N118W to
06N129.5W, and within 30 nm of 14.5N133W.  

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Agatha which will affect the far sw portion through Sun. Otherwise, 
a w to e orientated ridge extends into the area from 25N120W to
17N103W, with gentle anticyclonic winds observed around the
ridge. Little change expected until Sun afternoon when
increasing winds and building seas will spread n across the
waters s of 16N between 105-115W in association with a
developing tropical low, or possible tropical cyclone. The area
of at least strong to near gale force winds, and large seas will
shift w across the waters s of 18N between 110-120W from Sun
night through Wed. A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e
and w over the Baja California Peninsula and northern Gulf of
California for the next several days supporting gentle to
moderate southerly flow across the Gulf waters, except moderate
to occasionally fresh southerly breeze across the gulf waters to
the n of 30N.
     
S of 15N e of 120W: 

See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Agatha that pass through the far nw waters early tonight. Also see 
the special features section above for details on a tropical low 
near 11N106W that will likely soon become a tropical cyclone.  

Fresh drainage winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf 
of Papagayo each night through Wed night. 

W of 120W:

See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Agatha currently in the central waters and a tropical low currently
e of the area that will likely soon become a tropical cyclone with
associated conditions crossing 120W between 10-17N on Mon night. The
system will pass w across the central waters roughly from 10-20N
this week passing s of a broad ridge across the northern waters. 

$$
Nelson