000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021545
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Agatha centered near 15.6N 118.9W at 1500 UTC
moving WNW or 295 deg at 10 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated at 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt near the center. Agatha has been experiencing
some southeasterly shear, and scattered moderate to strong deep
convection is occurring within 150 nm NW of the center. It is
expected to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours, then
slowly weaken Sunday night and Monday as it moves into a more
unfavorable environment. Refer to latest forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

A broad 1007 mb low pres area embedded within the monsoon trough
near 11N106W is drifting slowly westward. Scattered moderate
convection is within 75 nm of the low center. Consensus model
guidance indicates the system will move into a more favorable
environment Sunday, and is likely to develop into a tropical
cyclone during the next 2-3 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

A tropical wave north of 06N along 96W is moving west at 15-20
kt. The tropical wave is enhancing convective activity within
180 nm east of the wave axis. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N100W through the
low near 11N106W to 14N112W, then resumes south of TS Agatha
from 11N120W to 09N126W to 11N132W. The ITCZ then extends from
11N132W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection from 08N to 11N between 88W-101W.

...DISCUSSION...   

Strong high pressure centered NW of the area near 37N151W
extends a ridge over northern waters, north of 19N and west of
122W. Scatterometer data last night showed moderate to fresh NE
winds NW of a line from 30N120W to 12N140W, and altimeter data
shows 7-9 ft seas in this area, with highest seas mainly north
of 24N between 120W-132W. Strong northerly winds off the Calif
coast have contributed to NNE swell in this area. A trough over
the Baja California peninsula is supporting occasional southerly
winds to 20 kt in the northern Gulf of California.

Fresh to strong ENE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo earlier
this morning have allowed seas to build to 8-9 ft from 10N to
12N east of 90W. Weaker conditions are expected tonight, with
fresh diurnal drainage winds producing 6-8 ft seas.

$$
Mundell