000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 01 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1010 mb low low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 14N116W. Fresh n-ne winds are observed within 120 nm of the center over the nw quadrant. Convection has burst near the center over the past several hours and also appears to be organizing into a band over the nw semicircle. A recent scatterometer pass indicates surface winds have increased to 20- 30 kt within 120 nm over the nw semicircle. Tropical cyclone formation is likely as the low moves just n of due w at 8-10 kt reaching near 14n119w on Sat, and near 16N122W on Sun. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. A tropical wave is analyzed n of 05N along 83W and has been moving w at near 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed to the n of 04N and e of 86W to the coast of Colombia. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N100W to an embedded 1008 mb low pres at 10N105W, to an embedded 1008 mb low pres at 14N116W, to an embedded 1009 mb low at 12.5N133W. The ITCZ develops sw of the low at 12.5N133w and continues sw to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side of a line from 05N78W to 13N99W, and also within 30 nm either side of a line from 10N133W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the surface low at 10N105W, roughly within 90 nm either side of a line from 08N104W to 13N108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the surface low at 14N116W, roughly within 120 nm either side of a line from 13N118W to 18N113W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the surface low at 12.5N133W, roughly within 120 nm either side of a line from 11N130W to 16N135W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the Baja California Peninsula and northern Gulf of California this weekend supporting gentle to moderate southerly flow across the Gulf waters, except moderate to occasionally fresh southerly breeze across the gulf waters to the n of 30N. A w to e orientated ridge extends across the waters between 114- 120W with gentle anticyclonic winds observed around the ridge, except moderate nw flow is observed n of 30N w of 118W where 5-8 ft seas are expected to continue into Sat morning. By then, a weak trough will pass e across the waters n of 30N on Sat, with the winds and seas diminishing and subsiding. A surface low currently near 14N116W is forecast to move northwestward across the far sw waters near 15N120W on Sat and Sat night...possibly as a tropical cyclone...accompanied by at least strong to near gale force winds, and seas to perhaps 12 ft. S of 15N e of 120W: See special features section above for details on a surface low at 14N116W. A 1008 mb low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at 10N105W. Gentle to moderate winds are observed n of the low, while moderate to fresh southwesterly flow is observed within about 360 nm se of the low. This low is forecast to move wnw to near 12N106W on Sat, and near 14N109W on Sun. Environmental conditions will become more favorable for tropical cyclone development early next week. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo overnight, with these conditions spreading w across the waters from 09.5N to 12N between 86W and 92W early Sat, with seas building to 10 ft. Only fresh drainage winds are expected on Sat night. W of 120W: See special features section above for details on a surface low at 14N116W that will move into the area w of 120W on Sun, and continue moving westward next week. A 1009 mb low low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at 12.5N133W, with fresh ne winds and 6-8 ft seas within 180 nm nw of the low. Little change expected as the low weakens and associated conditions shift w of 140W on sun night. A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters to the n of 15N w of 120W. Combined seas of 7-10 ft, primarily due to ne swell, is observed n of 26N, and is expected to propagate s to along 20N on Sun before beginning to subside. $$ Nelson