000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N92W to low pressure near 10N101W 1010 mb to low pressure near 13N114W 1011 MB TO 14N124W to low pressure near 14N126W 1010 mb to low pressure near 12N132W 1008 mb to low pressure near 09N135W 1011 mb to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 04N to 08N between 77W and 82W. Scattered moderate to strong convection exists from 10N to 15N between 93W and 102W. Scattered strong convection is within 30 nm of axis between 89W and 92W, and also between 120W and 121W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: A NNW to SSE oriented trough will remain over the Baja California peninsula and northern Gulf of California through this weekend. The trough will maintain gentle to moderate S flow across the Gulf waters. NW swell generated by strong to gale force winds along the California coast will cause seas N of 26N and W of 118W to build to between 8 and 9 ft on Sat. The swell will begin to subside on Sat night, and allow for seas in this area to subside to less than 8 ft on Sun. A high pres ridge extends southeastward from 23N120W to 18N109W. Gentle anticyclonic winds are noted in the vicinity of the ridge from 20N to 25N between 110W and 120W. Fresh north to northeast winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Resultant seas of 8 ft are due to northeast wind waves mixing with long period SW swell. The winds will become light and variable by this evening with seas subsiding to just under 8 ft. Winds will then become briefly become fresh north to northeast in the mornings each day through Saturday and light and variable in the afternoons. S of 15N E of 120W: Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of the monsoon trough. Fresh NE winds are occurring through the Gulf of Papagayo, and west to 91W with seas to 8 ft as the NE wind waves mix with SW swell. Lighter winds and seas less than 8 ft are expected tonight through Saturday. A similar gap wind event on Saturday could lead to seas to again build to 8 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo. Long period SW swell mixing with smaller swell components are maintaining combined seas just above 8 ft from 02N to 15N between 94W and 112W, and from 05N to 11N between 90W and 94W as indicated a recent altimeter pass. The swell energy is forecast by wavewatch guidance to gradually dissipate through early Saturday afternoon allowing for seas to subside to less than 8 ft. Model guidance continues to suggest that the low pressure near 10N101W will become better organized on by late Friday, and gradually strengthen while tracking in a general west to west- northwestward direction through the weekend. W of 120W: A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters N of 15N. A swath of 7 to 9 ft seas dominated by NE swell is observed within 150 nm either side of a line from 30N129W to 21N136W. These conditions will spread SW through tonight. A reinforcing surge of large N swell will allow for seas north of 24N to build to between 8 and 10 ft on Sat. These swell will begin to subside on Sat night and allow seas in this area to drop below 8 ft by Mon. $$ AGUIRRE