000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300231
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 30 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1010 mb low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
10N100W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection within
300 nm over the ne semicircle. A 1011 mb is analyzed along the
monsoon trough at 12N112w with scattered moderate isolated
strong convection within 300 nm over the nw semicircle. A 1011 mb
is analyzed along the monsoon trough at 11N132w with scattered
moderate isolated strong convection within 150 nm over the n
quadrant.  
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N91W through the
previously described low at 09N98W to 12N107W to a 1010 mb
embedded low pres at 11N111W, with the monsoon trough continuing
nw to 14N122W, then the trough turns sw to 07N135W where
scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ forms and then continues
sw to beyond 06N140W. 

Except as mentioned, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed within 180 nm of a line from 06N77W to
09N95W, and within 150 nm of a line from 13N107W to 12N130W to
10N135W.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the
Baja California peninsula and northern Gulf of California this
week supporting gentle southerly flow across the Gulf waters,
except occasionally increasing to moderate southerly breeze
across the northern gulf waters.

Gentle anticyclonic winds surround a ridge from 24N120W to 
18N107W.  

Fresh n winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight
with seas building to 7 ft as the resultant ne wind wave mixes 
with long period sw swell.
      
S of 15N e of 120W: 

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails s of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate ne to e winds are observed n of the monsoon
trough. 

Fresh northeasterly winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo 
tonight and again on Thu night. Guidance is suggesting a slightly 
stronger event on Fri night with strong e winds near 12N89W.

Long period southwesterly swell with combined seas currently to
9 ft will subside below 8 ft by early Fri.

Guidance stills indicates a surface low will develop near 10N99W
on Fri night and track generally wnw and gradually strengthen 
over the weekend reaching near 12N112W on Mon night.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters to the n of 15N w of
120W. A swath of ne 7-9 ft seas primarily due to ne swell is
observed n of 22N between 124-135W. These conditions will spread
sw through Fri and then be reinforced by another surge of large
n swell reaching along 32N between 118132w on Thu night with 8-
12 ft across the waters n of 25N between 119-135W.
  
$$
Nelson