000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave extends from low pressure of 1008 mb along the Monsoon Trough near 09N97W north to 13N97W to 15N96W. The wave has slowed down in motion to around 10 kt. The wave remains under a rather broad and strong upper-level trough. This setup with a pronounced diffluent flow pattern aloft continues to provide favorable conditions for convection around and near the low and tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm of low, and within 120 nm east of the wave. Similar activity is to the west of the wave from 10N to 13N between 99W and 101W. This system is expected to attain gradually development late in the week and into the weekend as environmental conditions become more favorable. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 08N79W to 09N88W to low pressure near 09N97W 1008 MB to 10N105W to low pressure near 11N110W 1010 MB to 13N120W to low pressure near 09N132W 1008 MB to beyond 08N140W. Numerous strong convection is within 30 NM OF 13N122W. Scattered strong convection is within 120 NM south of trough between 120W-124W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 NM south of trough between 78W and 82W, and between 87W and 92W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 NM north of the trough between 107W and 111W, and also within 120 NM south of the trough between 124W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 NM north of the axis between 130W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: A trough oriented from NNW to SSE will stay over the Baja California peninsula this week. Light to gentle south winds will continue over the Gulf waters through Wed, then winds will increase to between gentle and moderate Thu through Sat. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N122W to 23N123W. The trough is situated just along the southeast periphery of a northwest to southeast ridge axis extending roughly from 32N135W to near 25N124W. Light to moderate anticyclonic winds surround the high and ridge across the waters W of 105W. Strong north to northeast winds of 20 to 25 kt are pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weaker repeat performance is expected again tonight. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are anticipated as the resultant NE wind wave mixes with long period SW swell. Fresh N to NE winds tonight will cause seas to build to just 8 ft. S of 15N E of 120W: Moderate monsoonal winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are observed N of the monsoon trough. Gulf of Papagayo gap winds of 20 to 25 kt from the NE to E are expected early this morning and again tonight with seas topping out at 8 ft. Weaker gap winds between 15 and 20 kt from the NE to E are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo each night from Thu night through Sat night. Combined seas should remain below 8 ft during this time frame. Long period SW swell are maintaining combined seas of 8 to 10 ft to the W of 93W. The SW swell have begun to subside but will continue to travel NE and mix with the N and NE swells propagating out of the gap areas through Thu night. Seas W of 93W will fall below 8 ft on Fri. W of 120W: A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters N of 15N and W of 125W. A area of 7 to 9 ft seas dominated by NE swell is observed N of 22N between 124W and 132W. The area of higher seas will spread SW and cover an area within 150 nm of a line from 30N129W to 21N140W by early on Thu. These conditions will persist through Sat morning. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell have begun to subside but are maintaining seas of 8 to 9 south of 10N and east of 127W. This area of swell will gradually decrease in size through Friday with seas to 8 ft. $$ AGUIRRE