000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 719 UTC Wed Jun 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave N of 08N along 96.5W is moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is currently aligned with an upper-level trough. This setup is providing favorable conditions for convection. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 13N to 15N between 96W and 100W. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to low pres near 08N96W 1008 MB to 11N105W to low pres near 11N109W 1008 MB to 13N120W to low pres near 09N131W 1008 MB to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present within 150 nm of the monsoon trough axis E of 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found within 300 nm of the monsoon trough axis W of 104W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: A trough oriented from NNW to SSE will stay over the Baja California peninsula this week. Light to gentle south winds will continue over the Gulf waters through Wed, then winds will increase to between gentle and moderate Thu through Sat. A trough stretching from S to N is analyzed from 19N123W to 27N122W. This feature effectively separates the subtropical ridge from weak 1014 mb high pressure centered at 27N120W. A ridge extends SE from the high to near 17N109W. Light to moderate anticyclonic winds surround the high and ridge across the waters W of 105W. Strong N to NE winds of 20 to 25 kt are pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weaker repeat performance is expected again tonight. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are anticipated as the resultant NE wind wave mixes with long period SW swell. Fresh N to NE winds tonight will cause seas to build to just 8 ft. S of 15N E of 120W: Moderate monsoonal winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of the monsoon trough. Gulf of Papagayo gap winds of 20 to 25 kt from the NE to E are expected early this morning and again tonight with seas topping out at 8 ft. Weaker gap winds between 15 and 20 kt from the NE to E are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo each night from Thu night through Sat night. Combined seas should remain below 8 ft during this time frame. Long period SW swell are maintaining combined seas of 8 to 10 ft to the W of 93W. The SW swell have begun to subside but will continue to travel NE and mix with the N and NE swells propagating out of the gap areas through Thu night. Seas W of 93W will fall below 8 ft on Fri. W of 120W: A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters N of 15N and W of 125W. A area of 7 to 9 ft seas dominated by NE swell is observed N of 22N between 124W and 132W. The area of higher seas will spread SW and cover an area within 150 nm of a line from 30N129W to 22N136W tonight. These conditions will persist through Sat morning as strong to gale force winds along the California coast continue generating large N to NE swell. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell have begun to subside but are maintaining seas just above 8 ft S of 10N and E of 125W. Seas in this area will subside below 8 ft tonight. $$ cam