000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1545 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 08N79W to 09N86W to low pres near 11N105W 1011 MB to 12N117W to low pres near 08N125.5W 1011 MB. ITCZ axis extends from 08N125.5W to 06N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered strong convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 128W and 130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 NM of trough axis between 122W and 128W, and within 180 NM s of trough axis between 112W and 117W. Similar convective activity is noted from 09N to 13N between 91W and 95W...within 120 NM s of the trough axis between 112W and 117W...within 60 NM of the trough axis between 103W and 109W...and from 09N TO 14N between 104W and 109W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 90W north of 09N is approximated to be moving westward at 15 kt. Only isolated moderate convection is occurring within 120 NM east of the wave from 09N to 12N. The wave is located just to the east of a rather vigorous upper trough axis that extends from southeastern Mexico southeast to 09N93W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection as described above under ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH is ahead of the wave. The wave is likely to help induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the next 48 hours. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: A north-northwest to south-southeast oriented trough will remain over the Baja California peninsula this week. Light to gentle S to SW winds will prevail over the Gulf waters through Sat. Strong to gale force NW to N winds will continue along the California coast through Fri. Large north swell generated by these winds are expected to propagate southward mainly to the W of 120W. Strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the nighttime hours. N to NE winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas to 9 ft are currently occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will again pulse to 20 to 30 kt tonight with seas building to 10 ft before diminishing by early on Wednesday afternoon. A weaker event of 20-25 kt winds is expected late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with seas to 8 ft. S of 15N E of 120W: Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of the monsoon trough. Gap winds of 20 to 25 kt from the NE to E are affecting the Gulf of Papagayo. A repeat occurrence is expected tonight before diminishing to 15 to 20 kt Wednesday afternoon. Seas are expected to be 8 ft in and near the Gulf. More long period SW swell are crossing the equator. The swell are spreading northeastward and will cause seas S of 11N and W of 93W to build to between 8 and 10 ft by Tue evening. Seas in this area will begin to subside on Wed and fall below 8 ft on Fri. W of 120W: A broad ridge resides over the EPAC waters to the N of 12N, where Gentle to moderate NE winds are observed. Otherwise, moderate NE trades are seen N of the monsoon trough. Moderate SW winds are found S of the monsoon trough. This general pattern for winds is expected to persist for at least the next several days. Strong to gale force NW to N winds along the California coast will generate large N swell. Seas N of about 22N and W of 130W will build to a maximum height of 9 ft Wednesday...then spread southwest to near 20N between 130W and 139W and to north of 28N between 120W and 134W by early on Thursday. The winds along the coast of California are forecast to diminish beginning on Saturday allowing seas to slowly subside. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell have caused seas to build to between 8 and 9 ft S of 10N and E of 125W. Seas will begin to subside tonight. $$ AGUIRRE