000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
742 UTC Mon Jun 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 10N105W to low pres
near 10N115W 1010 mb to low pres near 06N121W 1011 MB to 07N123W.
The monsoon trough resumes from 13N127W to low pres near 11N133W
1010 MB to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is present within 240 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 92W
and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 08N to 12N W
of 133W.

...DISCUSSION...  

N of 15N E of 120W:

A NNW to SSE-oriented trough will continue to reside over the
Baja California peninsula for at least the next several days.
Light to gentle S to SW winds will prevail over the Gulf waters
through Fri.

Strong to gale force NW to N winds will continue along the
California coast through Thu. The swell are expected to propagate
southward mainly to the W of 120W. Seas N of 27N and W of 118W
could build to above 8 ft by Thu.
 
Strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during
the nighttime hours until Thu morning. The strongest event of the
series will be from late this evening through Tue morning, when N
to NE winds reach 20 to 30 knots and seas build to between 8 and
10 ft.
      
S of 15N E of 120W:

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of the monsoon
trough.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell have subsided but another
round of long period SW swell is beginning to cross the equator.
The swell will spread northeastward and cause seas S of 10N and W
of 93W to build to between 8 and 10 ft by Tue evening. Seas in
this area will begin to subside on Wed and fall below 8 ft on Fri.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge still presides over the EPAC waters to the N of 12N,
where generally moderate N to NE winds are observed. Otherwise,
light to moderate NE trades are seen N of the monsoon trough.
Moderate SW winds are found S of the monsoon trough. This general
pattern for winds is expected to persist for the next several
days.

Surface low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near
11N133W. A small area of moderate to fresh NE winds is located in
the northern quadrant of the low from 13N and 19N between 130W
and 136W. This system is expected only develop slightly as it
continues westward at 10 to 15 kt. Winds to 20 kt and 7 to 9 ft
seas are expected in the N quadrant of the low as it tracks
westward. The low is expected to cross to the W of 140W on Tue
morning.

Strong to gale force NW to N winds along the California coast are
expected to generate N swell. The area affected by the swell will
expand southwestward through the waters N of 20N Mon night
through Thu night as seas build to between 8 and 9 ft.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will cause seas to build to
between 8 and 9 ft S of 08N and E of 130W this morning through
Tue morning. Seas will then subside to below 8 ft by Wed evening.

$$
cam