000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 23 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern part of a tropical wave off the Pacific coast of El
Salvador extends to 12N88W, accompanied by minimal convection.
The wave will continue W at 10-15 kt along the Pacific coast of
Guatemala and reach the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N109W to 09N120W,
then ITCZ from 09N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection stretches along the convergence zone within
150 nm S and 90 nm N of the axis between 96W-130W.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

Weak high pressure prevails over northern waters N of 20N. A sfc
trough is analyzed over the Gulf of California. Scatterometer
data shows generally gentle to moderate northeasterly winds N of
the convergence zone and mainly moderate southerly winds to the
south of it. Long period southerly swell continues to propagate
northward across the basin, resulting in combined seas of 8 to
12 ft. These seas will begin to subside from the west Fri night.
Model guidance suggests a sfc low may develop along the monsoon
trough near 11N124W Sat. Little change is expected elsewhere.
  
$$
Mundell