000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231547
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 23 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern extension of a tropical wave extends off the
Pacific coast of El Salvador to near 11N88W and is accompanied
by a couple of small clusters of convection. The wave will
continue w at about 12 kt along the Pacific coast of Guatemala
and reach the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Fri night and Sat.      

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N92W to 10N104W to
09N125W where scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ forms and
continues sw to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed along the Pacific coast of
Colombia from 01-08N to the e of 81W. Similar convection is
noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ within 270 nm either
side of a line from 12N94W to 09N117W, and within 120 nm either
side of a line form 08N117W to 09N124W to 06N130W to 08N135W. 

Guidance is suggesting a surface low may develop along the 
monsoon trough near 11N124W on Sat.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

Strong northerly flow will persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through late morning, then quickly diminish to 20 kt
or less early this afternoon. Maximum seas of 12 ft observed
this morning, are expected to subside to a max of 11 ft on Fri
morning primarily due to long period southerly swell. 

A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California supporting
mostly gentle southerly flow across the Gulf waters for the next
few days.

Long period southerly swell has propagated northward across the
open EPAC waters s of 26N to the e of 120W resulting in combined
seas of 8 to 12 ft. These seas will begin to subside from the w
on Fri night.
      
S of 15N e of 120W: 

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails s of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate ne to e winds are observed n of the monsoon
trough. Long period cross-equatorial sw swell results in
combined seas of 8-12 ft across the entire area...except within
about 360 nm ne of the Galapagos islands. These seas will begin
to subside from the w on Fri night.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters to the n of 27N w of
120W. Fresh ne winds are observed roughly n of 27N between 125-
140W resulting in combined seas of 7-9 ft. This n-ne swell will
begin to subside from the w tonight. Moderate ne trades are
observed elsewhere n of the ITCZ. Long period cross-equatorial
southerly swell is observed s of 27N e of 125W with seas of 7-11
ft. This southerly swell will decay to less than 8 ft across the
tropical waters w of 120W on Sat.
  
$$
Nelson