000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230925
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 1011 mb low pressure
near 10N114W to 1011 mb low pressure near 09N125W. The inter
tropical convergence zone extends from 09N125W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north of the
axis and 90 nm south of the axis between 95W and 105W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm
south of the monsoon trough axis between 110W and 120W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm south of the ITCZ
between 130W and 135W.
  
...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico and lower pressure within the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough is supporting fresh to strong northerly flow across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. The winds will diminish later
this morning. The combination of a weakening ridge to the north
and the passage of a tropical wave across southern Mexico will
result in a weaker pulse to 20 kt the next couple of nights into
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are reaching 11 ft within 240 nm to
the southwest and downstream of the plume, enhanced in part by
longer period southwest swell that will persist over the next
couple of days.

Weak troughing persists over the northern Gulf of California and
off the coast of BCN, with generally moderate winds continuing
through the next couple of days. Northerly swell with wave heights
of 8 to 10 ft related to persistent strong flow off California
will propagate south of 32N and east of 120W starting Friday,
mixing with longer period southwest swell that has been impacting
the region the past several days.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Gentle to moderate breezes prevail south of the monsoon trough,
while light to gentle northeast breezes are observed north of the
monsoon trough. A brief pulse of gap winds to 20 kt into the Gulf
of Papagayo will subside later this morning, but a stronger pulse
is expected tonight in the wake of a tropical wave passing across
the region. A 1011 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the
monsoon trough near 09N114W will continue westward through the
next couple of days, but is not expected to develop further.
Long period cross- equatorial southwest swell results in combined
seas of 6-10 ft across the entire area with the potential for
hazardous surf along exposed areas of the Central American coast.
These seas will begin to subside on Fri.

West of 120W:

A surface trough extending from 20N130W to 25N126W. Fresh to
strong northeast winds are observed between the trough and high
pressure north of the area, with seas to near 10 ft. These winds
may diminish slightly to 20 kt but will otherwise persist as the
trough moves westward, reaching 140W by late Friday. The presence
of the trough is allowing only gentle to moderate trade winds
farther south along the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN