000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221551
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 22 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 10N81W to 10N126W where
scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ forms and continues w to
beyond 07.5n140w. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed over and to the s of the monsoon trough within 240
nm either side of a line from 05N77W TO 09N127W n of the monsoon
trough within 240 nm of line from 12N89W to 13N100W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within
150 nm of 20.5N106W.
  
...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico and lower pressure within the EPAC monsoon trough will
maintain strong to near gale force northerly flow across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, then quickly diminishing to 20
kt or less this afternoon. Strong n to ne winds will develop
again tonight in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and persist through
late Thu morning. Maximum seas of 13 ft observed this morning,
are expected to subside to a max of 11 ft on Thu morning.

A weak n to s orientated trough is analyzed over the northern
Gulf of California. The pressure gradient has relaxed during the
past 24 hours, and gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are now
observed across the Gulf of California waters near the trough.
Long period southerly swell has propagated northward across the
open EPAC waters s of 19N to the e of 120W. Expect these s
swells to reach along 25N on Thu, and spread n into the southern
Gulf of California waters on Thu night. Long period nw swell
will propagate se across the open EPAC waters to the n of 25N e
of 120W on Fri, with combined seas of 8-9 ft everywhere except
in and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas of
7-11 ft are forecast.
      
S of 15N e of 120W: 

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails s of the monsoon trough, while
light to gentle ne winds are observed n of the monsoon trough,
except fresh winds are forecast across, and downwind of the Gulf
of Papagayo through late this morning. Long period cross-
equatorial sw swell results in combined seas of 7-11 ft across
the entire area with the potential for hazardous surf along
exposed areas of the Central American coast. These seas will
begin to subside on Fri.

W of 120W:

A surface trough is analyzed from 22N126W to 30N120W with a
broad ridge dominating the EPAC waters w of this westward moving
trough. A swath of fresh n to ne winds is observed roughly n of
24N between 122-135W resulting in combined seas of 7-9 ft. This
n-ne swell will propagate sw reaching along 22N between 125-140W
tonight, then begin to subside. Moderate ne trades are observed
elsewhere n of the ITCZ. Long period cross-equatorial southerly
swell is observed s of 15N e of 130W with seas of 7-11 ft. This
southerly swell will decay to less than 8 ft across the
tropical waters w of 120W on Fri night.
  
$$
Nelson