000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220923
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 UTC Wed Jun 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave currently over the southwest Caribbean Sea will
move across Central America and southern Mexico into the eastern
Pacific tonight. The wave will slow as it shifts west, reaching
near 95W by late Thu.
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends W from 10N86W TO 08N103W TO 10N125W,
then ITCZ from 10N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough
between 88W and 92W. scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm either side of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

Weak troughs persist along the Gulf of California and off the
coast of Baja California Norte. But the overall pressure gradient
has weakened and gentle to moderate winds persist across the
region. Meanwhile long period southerly swell with wave heights 8
ft or greater is reaching as far north as the Revillagigedo
Islands and the Mexican coast to Manzanillo. The swell will push
as far north as 25N by Thu. Farther south, the pressure gradient
between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough will maintain strong northerly flow
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late today, developing
again tonight through late Thu morning. Associated seas will
build to max of 13 ft due to mixing northerly wind wave and long
period cross- equatorial southwest swell.
   
S of 15N e of 120W: 

Fresh gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish later
this morning. Elsewhere moderate monsoonal flow prevails south of
the monsoon trough, while light to gentle northeast winds are
observed elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Long period
cross-equatorial southwest swell results in combined seas of 7-10
ft across the entire area with the potential for hazardous surf
along exposed areas of the Central American coast. These seas will
begin to subside on Fri.

W of 120W:

A surface trough from roughly 10N to 20N near 120W will continue
to move west and reach 130W by Thu, south of a surface ridge axis
reaching from roughly 32N135W through 23N120W, and keeping
generally moderate trade wind flow in place farther south in the
deep tropics. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted between
the ridge axis and persistent surface trough near 120W north of
25N. These winds are associated with strong northerly flow off the
coast of California that has been ongoing for the past couple of
days, resulting in a surge of northerly swell to 10 ft into the
waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W. This swell will subside
through late Fri. Farther south, cross- equatorial southerly swell
with heights 8 to 12 ft is reaching as far north as 18N mainly
east of 135W. The swell will decay to less than 8 ft west of 120W
by late Fri.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN