000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220235
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 22 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends W from10N84W TO 08N103W TO 10N124W,
then ITCZ from 10N124W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 06N to 10N between 88W and 95W. Scattered
moderate convection from 07N to 10N between 116W and 123W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

A broad ridge extends over northern waters roughly N of 20N and
W of 115W. An area of low pressure is analyzed near 33N119W with
a weak sfc trough extending SSW from the low to near 18N122W.
Another surface trough analyzed over NW Mexico is triggering
active deep convection along a line from 28N108W to 22N105W.
Scatterometer data showed fresh to strong northerly winds N of
30N between 122W and 133W and fresh NE winds in the NW portion,
N of 27N W of 137W. These winds are enhancing sea heights in
northern waters added to a residual 5-6 ft cross-equatorial SSW
swell.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except for a narrow
band of gap-induced winds extending 40-60 nm downwind from the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient between high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure associated with the
monsoon trough will maintain strong northerly flow across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through late Thu morning. A narrow
swath of near gale 30 kt winds are expected around sunrise Thu.
Seas in this gap wind region will build to 11-13 ft due to the
mixing of NE wind waves and long period cross-equatorial SW
swell. Also expect winds in the Gulf of Papagayo to briefly
reach 20 kt late tonight.
   
Large long period cross-equatorial SW swell continues to spread
northward, and combined seas of 7-10 ft can be expected across a
large portion of the area, with the potential for hazardous surf
along exposed areas of the Central American coast. These seas
will begin to subside Thu night and Fri.
  
$$
Mundell