000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 21 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends w from 10N84W to 09N108W, then ITCZ
from 09N108W to 10N122W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 07N to 10N between 84W and 93W. Scattered
moderate convection within 75 nm either side of the ITCZ axis
between 116W and 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

A broad ridge extends over northern waters roughly N of 21N and
W of 124W. An area of low pressure is analyzed near 32N119W with
a surface trough extending S-SW from the low through 21N120W to
near 16N123W. Another surface trough is analyzed over NW Mexico
from 32N113W S-SE to near 24N106W. Scatterometer data shows
fresh to strong northerly winds N of 30N between 122W and 133W
and fresh NE winds in the NW portion N of 27N w of 137W. These
winds are enhancing sea heights in northern waters in addition
to background 5-6 ft cross-equatorial S-SW swell.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except for a narrow
band of gap-induced winds extending 60-70 nm downwind from the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient between high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure associated with the
monsoon trough will maintain strong northerly flow across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed afternoon, with similar
conditions re-developing Wed night through late Thu morning. A
narrow swath of near gale 30 kt winds are expected around
sunrise Wed. Seas in this gap wind region will build to 11-13 ft
due to mixing of NE wind waves and long period cross-equatorial
sw swell. Also expect winds in the Gulf of Papagayo to briefly
reach 20 kt tonight.
   
Large long period cross-equatorial sw swell continues to spread
northward, and combined seas of 7-10 ft can be expected across a
large portion of the area, with the potential for hazardous surf
along exposed areas of the Central American coast. These seas
will begin to subside Thu night and Fri.
  
$$
Mundell