000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211501
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 21 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough on the Caribbean coast of colombia at
10n76wand extends w along 09N to the Pacific coast of Costa
Rica at 10N84W to 09N100W where scatterometer winds indicate
the ITCZ forms and continues sw through 06N115W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed over and to the s of the monsoon trough within 180
nm either side of a line from 05N79W to 08N104W. Isolated
moderate and strong convection is noted over and to the n of 
the ITCZ from 04N to 15N between 113W and 126W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed 
well n of the monsoon trough within 30 nm of 13N92W and  
15N94W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

A n to s orientated trough is analyzed over the Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh southerly winds continue across
the gulf waters n of 30N. Long period southerly swell is just
beginning to propagate n across 15N and expected to reach along
25N on Thu. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure within the EPAC monsoon trough
will maintain strong northerly flow across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Wed afternoon, with these conditions
developing again on Wed night through late Thu morning. A swath
of embedded near gale force winds are expected around sunrise on
Wed. Associated seas will build to max of 13 ft due to mixing ne
wind wave and long period cross-equatorial sw swell.
   
S of 15N e of 120W: 

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails s of the monsoon trough, while
light to gentle ne winds are observed elsewhere n of the monsoon
trough, except locally fresh to strong across, and downwind of
the Gulf of Papagayo through late this morning. Long period
cross-equatorial sw swell results in combined seas of 7-10 ft
across the entire area with the potential for hazardous surf
along exposed areas of the Central American coast. These seas
will begin to subside on Fri.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge extends from roughly 32N135w to 18N123W. A swath
of fresh to locally strong northerly winds is observed n of the
ridge...or roughly n of 28N between 120-130W resulting in
combined seas of 7-10 ft. The gradient will soon relax with
winds diminishing some, but the resultant n-ne swell in the form
of 7-9 ft seas, will propagate s reaching along 24N between 120-
134W on Wed then begin to subside. Moderate ne trades are
observed elsewhere n of the ITCZ with seas of 4-7 ft. Long
period cross-equatorial southerly swell is observed s of the
ITCZ with seas of 7-11 ft. 
  
$$
Nelson