000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190901
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
811 UTC Sun Jun 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to 08N86W to 07N94W to
1010 mb low pressure centered near 07N107W to 07N112W. The ITCZ
reaches from 11N116W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted north of 02N and east of 82W, mainly along the
coasts of Colombia and Panama. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted within 120 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 90W
and 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N east of 120W:

Northwest winds will increase slightly off the northern coast of
Baja California Norte this afternoon between high pressure west of
the area and a deepening trough over the Gulf of California. These
winds will diminish Monday as the trough shifts westward off the
coast of the Baja California peninsula. Long period southwest
swell start to move north of 15N early next week. The pressure
gradient between high pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico
and the monsoon trough over the eastern North Pacific will help
for strong gap wind flow into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The mix of
shorter period wind waves from the gap winds and the longer period
southwest swell will result in areas of confused seas in and
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In addition, the swell will
allow the potential for hazardous surf along exposed areas of the
coast of Mexico starting late Monday through mid week.

South of 15N east of 120W:

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails to the south of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate northeasterly trade winds prevail to
the north of the monsoon trough. Subsiding southwesterly swell
continues to propagate across the area with seas in the 5 to 6
foot range beyond 250 nm offshore, and in the 3 to 5 foot range
within 250 nm offshore. A fresh set of long period southwesterly
swell will move into the area starting late today. Wave heights
will build to 6 to 9 ft on Monday and Tuesday, and then to 7 to 10
feet Wednesday and Thursday. This swell will reach the coast of
Central America by mid week creating the potential for hazardous
surf along exposed areas of the coast.

West of 120W:

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and
low pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh winds with seas in the 4 to 7 foot
range. The ridge will prevail in the northern waters during the
next few days with these general conditions persisting. A surge of
northerly winds off the coast of Southern California will push
south of 32N by Monday, bringing fresh to strong winds as far
south as 28N between 120W and 126W with seas to 8 ft by early next
week. These conditions will shift westward slightly Tuesday and
Wednesday, diminishing thereafter.

$$
CHRISTENSEN