000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180901
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 UTC Sat Jun 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N84W to 06N93W to low
pressure near 10N103W to 10N 120W. The ITCZ reaches from 09N128W
to 08N134W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm of the coast of Panama and Costa
Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south
of the monsoon trough between 92W and 99W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ
between 130W and 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N east of 120W:

Weak 1012 mb low pressure over the Revillagigedo Islands will
dissipate later today. Winds will increase off the northern Baja
California Norte today between 1020 mb high pressure centered near
31N125W and persistent troughing over the Gulf of California.
These winds will diminish Monday as the trough shifts westward off
the coast of the Baja California peninsula, allowing a moderate to
fresh southerly flow over the northern Gulf of California by
Tuesday Meanwhile long period southwest swell start to move north
of 15N early next week. This will coincide with strong gap wind
flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, related to a tightening pressure
gradient between high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and
relatively lower pressure farther south in the deep tropics. The
mix of shorter period wind waves from the gap winds and the longer
period southwest swell will result in areas of confused seas in
and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In addition, the swell will
allow the potential for hazardous surf along exposed areas of the
coast of Mexico starting late Monday through mid week. 

South of 15N east of 120W:

Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow prevails to the south of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate northeasterly trade winds
prevail to the north of the monsoon trough. Southwesterly swell
continues to propagate across the area with seas in the 5 to 8
foot range from 100W westward, and in the 4 to 6 foot range from
100W eastward. Long period southwest swell will move into the area
starting late Sunday with wave heights of 6 to 9 ft, reaching the
coast of Central America by mid week.

West of 120W:

A surface trough, the remnants of a dissipated cold front, reach
from 30N128W to 25N140W and will drift westward later today. This
will leave high pressure in place across the region north of 25N. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh winds with seas in the 4 to 7 foot range. The ridge will
prevail in the northern waters during the next few of days with
these general conditions persisting. A surge of northerly winds
off the coast of Southern California will push south of 32N by
Monday day, bringing fresh to strong winds as far south as 28N
between 120W and 125W with seas to 8 ft by early Tuesday, and
diminishing by late Tuesday.

$$
CHRISTENSEN