000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180223
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0223 UTC Sat Jun 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W to the north of 12N, moving west
around 5 to 10 kt. The wave axis extends from the western Yucatan
peninsula southward across southeast Mexico and western Guatemala.
Associated convection is confined to nearby land areas.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to 04N91W to low
pressure near 09N103W then resumes from low pressure near 19N112W
to 12N120W to 08N130W. The intertropical convergence zone axis
extends from 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 300 nm of the low center near 09N103W, with widely
scattered moderate convection within 60 to 120 nm either side of
the axis to the west of 119W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N east of 120W:

A surface ridge extends from high pressure near 29N127W through
25N120W to 24N113W. A surface trough extends across the Gulf of
California. Low pressure of 1008 MB is centered near 19N112W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm in the north and
180 nm in the east quadrants of the low. Mainly moderate winds are
occurring around the low, except to fresh in the northeast
quadrant, with combined seas of 5 to 8 feet, highest in the
northeast quadrant where the strongest winds are. The low is
moving to the west-northwest around 5 to 10 kt over colder water
and it will gradually dissipate over the weekend. Outside of the
low, gentle to moderate winds prevail along with combined seas of
4 to 7 feet. The ridge will build over the area and tighten the
pressure gradient over the northeast waters which will strengthen
wind flow and build seas to 8 feet offshore of the northern Baja
California peninsula by Sunday morning and afternoon.

South of 15N east of 120W:

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern waters and is
discussed in the section above. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow
prevails to the south of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate
northeasterly trade winds prevail to the north of the monsoon
trough. Southwesterly swell continues to propagate across the area
with seas in the 5 to 8 foot range from 100W westward, and in the
4 to 6 foot range from 100W eastward.

West of 120W:

A dissipating cold front is stalling from 30N130W to 25N140W.
This front will become a remnant trough early Saturday, then will
drift westward through the remainder of the weekend. Otherwise,
high pressure prevails to the north of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh winds with seas in the 4 to 7 foot range. The ridge will
prevail in the northern waters during the next few of days with
these general conditions persisting.

$$
JLewitsky