000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172124
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2125 UTC Fri Jun 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1008 MB is centered near 19.5N110.5W and is moving
to the west-northwest around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 240 nm in the southwest semicircle. Associated winds
and seas have diminished during the past several hours as the low
moves over colder waters, however, there is still a medium chance
that this low will develop into a tropical cyclone.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 91W to the north of 11N. The wave axis
extends from the Yucatan peninsula southward across Guatemala.
Convection has diminished during the past several hours with the
greatest concentration now to the north over the eastern Yucatan
peninsula.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to 04N90W to low
pressure near 07N102W, then resumes from low pressure near
19.5N110.5W to 08N130W. The intertropical convergence zone axis
extends from 08N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N to 05N between 88W and 93W, within 300 nm in the
northwest semicircle of the low near 07N102W, and also within
90 nm either side of the axis between 120W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N east of 120W:

A surface ridge extends from high pressure near 28N127W through
25N120W to 21N115W. A surface trough extends across the Gulf of
California. Low pressure of 1008 MB is centered near 19.5N110.5W
and is discussed in the special features section above. Fresh to
locally strong winds prevail over the northeast quadrant of the
low. Outside this area, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas
are reaching to 7 feet on the north side of the low where winds
are the strongest. Outside of this area, seas are in the 4 to 7
foot range. The ridge will build over the area and tighten the
pressure gradient over the northeast waters which will strengthen
wind flow and build seas to 8 feet offshore of the northern Baja
California peninsula by Sunday morning and afternoon.

South of 15N east of 120W:

A tropical wave is moving through the far eastern waters and is
discussed in the section above. Gentle to moderate monsoonal
flow prevails to the south of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate northeasterly trade winds prevail to the north of the
monsoon trough. Southwesterly swell continues to propagate
across the area with seas in the 5 to 8 foot range from 100W
westward, and in the 4 to 6 foot range from 100W eastward.

West of 120W:

A weak cold front is stalling from 30N131W to 26N140W. This front
will become a remnant trough early Saturday, then will drift
westward through the remainder of the weekend. Otherwise, high
pressure prevails to the north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and in
the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh winds with seas in the 4 to 7 foot range. The ridge will
prevail in the northern waters during the next few of days with
these general conditions persisting.

$$
JLewitsky